Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Mr. Gingrich increases his lead as we close out November

We have not had many polls this week, but the few we did have suggests that Mr. Gingrich has cracked the 30% mark. We need for polls to confirm this trend, so for now, I peg him at 28 and a half per cent. Well on his way to 30% and an increase of almost 4% from last week. He has at least 25% of the vote in every region of the country and as many former Cain states go to Mr. Gingrich, he leads in 2 out of every three states. Mr. Romney cracks the 23% mark by adding a half per cent to his total. Mr. Cain slips almost another 3% and falls under the 17% mark. Mr. Perry and Dr. Paul also lose over a full point to sit at about seven a half per cent each. Mrs. Bachmann inches up another half point to sit at 5.6%. Finally, Mr. Santorum and Mr. Huntsman are threatening to crack the 3% mark, but we will see what happens.

Now for the delegate math, as most know, each state and District of Columbia receives 3 bonus delegates in addition to all their other delegates that they receive. I have previously ignored these 153 delegates in my analysis because they are traditionally super delegates as opposed to elected delegates. First because some states are being punished, the 153 number is now reduced to 147. Some states lost 1.5 delegates of these delegates and some lost 1 delegate due to rounding. And yes, I too would like to know how 3 delegates become 1.5 delegates in a given state that lost half their delegates. The state that received punishment in the form of losing delegates, have decided (perhaps ironically) to elect bonus delegates. Other states have also chosen to do this. Thus 55 delegates across the country will be elected by Republican voters. Of course, if the election were held today in all 50 states, a good chuck of these delegates would go to Mr. Gingrich. However, Mr. Romney would disproportionately get the largest share of these newly elected delegates. So at least Mr. Romney partially making up for previously lost delegates.

So here would be the score: Mr. Gingrich climbs to 937 (a total rise of close to two hundred. Mr. Romney climbs to 603 (an increase of over 40.) Mr. Cain slips 339 (losing more than 150.) Mr. Perry sits at 102 and Dr. Paul goes down to 77 and Mrs. Bachmann goes up to a total of 45. Now it becomes an expectation game, as we watch who does better than expected in early states and who does not. Eventually, we will see who drops out. It will be interesting to see how the delegate math shakes out, but with only a month to go before voting, unless we have another serious shift in the political landscape, it will be a Gingrich-Romney contest. The Somebody Other than Romney camp appears to be settling for Mr. Gingrich and of course the Nobody But Romney camp is looking for a few people to join their ranks. This is not a good choice for many Conservatives, but it is what is. Even if somebody like Mr. Santorum cracks the 3% mark or even the beyond, at best he’ll be a King-Maker and not the King. It is fun to a degree to watch both Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich wave the Conservative flag, but I flag waving alone is not enough. So some of us will just pass the popcorn and watch things unfold. It is always fun to watch political events unfold, but this time the results will likely be far from fun.

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Terrye said...

Oh please...Gingrich is ahead a whopping 2.5 on RCP, which is within the margin of error and he is about 25 points behind Romney on intrade.

The poll cited below, the electoral college poll is the one that matters and it shows plainly that Gingrich would get his ass handed to him in an election against Obama...I am not even sure I could vote for this odious little man.

Ohio JOE said...

"the electoral college poll is the one that matters and it shows plainly that Gingrich would get his ass handed to him in an election against Obama..." That is only relivant in a general election.

Right Wingnut said...

OJ, it's also only relevant once you know who the candidates are. 4 years ago, the general election polls showed Hillary crushing Giuliani...with Obama losing badly.

Ohio JOE said...

You are correct RW, let one race unfold at a time and see where the chips lay.

Graham said...

The Hillary/Giuliani matchup is the dynamic we must keep in mind. Conventional wisdom says Mitt, hopefuls say Newt, who knows what'll happen. One day at a time, folks.

Terrye said...

OJ, My point is that it is the poll that really counts..especially when you hear conservatives say they want to beat Obama...well then you will have to run someone against who can actually win.