Now for the delegate math, as most know, each state and District of Columbia receives 3 bonus delegates in addition to all their other delegates that they receive. I have previously ignored these 153 delegates in my analysis because they are traditionally super delegates as opposed to elected delegates. First because some states are being punished, the 153 number is now reduced to 147. Some states lost 1.5 delegates of these delegates and some lost 1 delegate due to rounding. And yes, I too would like to know how 3 delegates become 1.5 delegates in a given state that lost half their delegates. The state that received punishment in the form of losing delegates, have decided (perhaps ironically) to elect bonus delegates. Other states have also chosen to do this. Thus 55 delegates across the country will be elected by Republican voters. Of course, if the election were held today in all 50 states, a good chuck of these delegates would go to Mr. Gingrich. However, Mr. Romney would disproportionately get the largest share of these newly elected delegates. So at least Mr. Romney partially making up for previously lost delegates.
So here would be the score: Mr. Gingrich climbs to 937 (a total rise of close to two hundred. Mr. Romney climbs to 603 (an increase of over 40.) Mr. Cain slips 339 (losing more than 150.) Mr. Perry sits at 102 and Dr. Paul goes down to 77 and Mrs. Bachmann goes up to a total of 45. Now it becomes an expectation game, as we watch who does better than expected in early states and who does not. Eventually, we will see who drops out. It will be interesting to see how the delegate math shakes out, but with only a month to go before voting, unless we have another serious shift in the political landscape, it will be a Gingrich-Romney contest. The Somebody Other than Romney camp appears to be settling for Mr. Gingrich and of course the Nobody But Romney camp is looking for a few people to join their ranks. This is not a good choice for many Conservatives, but it is what is. Even if somebody like Mr. Santorum cracks the 3% mark or even the beyond, at best he’ll be a King-Maker and not the King. It is fun to a degree to watch both Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich wave the Conservative flag, but I flag waving alone is not enough. So some of us will just pass the popcorn and watch things unfold. It is always fun to watch political events unfold, but this time the results will likely be far from fun.
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