Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Mr. Cain still holds a lead and Mr. Gingrinch take 3rd place

Mr. Cain falls under the 28% mark and Mr. Romney is jut an inch away from cracking the 25 % mark. Yes, Mr. Romney won yesterday’s poll, but Mr. Cain won various other polls earlier in the week to hang on to the slight lead. In part because a few states changed the delegate rules, Mr. Cain’s delegate lead has not shrunk that much yet. His lead is 922 to 733 over Mr. Romney. However, things are starting to tread against Mr. Cain. He would have had over 1000 delegates if every poll was as good as Quinnipiac. On a regional level, Mr. Cain’s strength in the Midwest due to a few good state polls this week help hide the fact that he lost a full per cent in the rest of the country.

Mr. Gingrich keeps gaining a bit with almost every poll and he sits at 13% nationally (a gain of 3 points) and now has 235 delegates. Mr. Perry is now down slightly to 10.8% and has 169 delegates (a bit of a loss.) Finally, of the big 5, Dr. Paul appeared to have a bit of a difficult week slipping slightly under the 9% mark and he is down to 112 delegates.

In short, Mr. Perry has all, but stopped the bleeding for now, Mr. Romney holds steady, Mr. Cain is starting to slip and Mr. Gingrich had the best week of everybody. For the most part, I do not have a whole lot to say about the weeks result because the next week or two will make things a little clearer. To be sure, it will be interesting to see how things shake out with Mr. Cain. On the one hand, he is starting to slip and he will probably not be the front-runner next week, but on the other hand, he is not in a free fall yet. Sure, his favorability ratings have slipped a bit, but it has been a poor week for most politicians in that regards.

While I myself were among those who predicted that Mr. Romney and Mr. Perry would not benefit a whole lot if Mr. Cain slipped, I admit that I am surprised that Mr. Gingrich seems to be the one getting most of the benefit. At the same time, Mr. Gingrich’s gains might not be due totally to Mr. Cain’s struggles. The Undecideds are starting to break and Mr. Gingrich happens to be the biggest beneficiary at the moment. There is no doubt that people are giving him a second look. Various people in my neighborhood have asked me what I think of Mr. Gingrich. I politely tell them that I did not immigrate to America to support somebody with a record of such shenanigans. So I am not happy with the rise of Mr. Gingrich, but we will see how it turns out.

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8 comments:

Terrye said...

Mr. Cain is toast. I don't care what some poll says right now..he is also showing signs of losing favor in other polls. I don't understand how a rational person could support him at this point. He is not fit for office.

Anonymous said...

^^^^^ I agree. Cain simply is not qualified to be President.

Ohio JOE said...

" I don't understand how a rational person could support him at this point. He is not fit for office." Okaaaaaaay? and the other candidates are fit? And it is rational to support the other candidates???

Terrye said...

Ohio Joe..

At least the other candidates might know what right of return is. They could talk about medicare. They could understand the policy they themselves are supporting. They know the difference between Pakistan and Afghanistan. They know the difference between pro choice and pro life. They would not say they would trade everyone at Gitmo for a kidnapped American soldier..well Ron Paul might say that. But all in all, Cain is the least qualified of all these candidates.

leighrow said...

I actually think Romney may benefit more than you think if Cain's base erodes. Many people wanted someone with substantial private sector experience and so they supported Cain. I think these voters would shift towards Romney and not to a career politician like newt or perry.

Ohio JOE said...

"At least the other candidates might know what right of return is." True, but Mr. Daniels did not know what Mexico City was? So all candidates are gaff prone at some point or another.

"They know the difference between Pakistan and Afghanistan." Well, like the majority of Americans, I missed that one.

Terrye said...

Ohio Joe...Well the majority of the American people are not running for President of the United States either. The idea that any nimrod can do it is not exactly going to make me have more faith in Cain. The average American could not do by pass surgery either.

Ohio JOE said...

Once again, you miss my point. The majority of Americans have never heard this particular gaff that you claim Mr. Cain said. Hey, I wonder whether that gaff even happened. A political junkie like me would have probably heard about it long ago.