The post Palin landscape

First of all, there have not been too many polls that have came out over the past few days and of those that did come out, some would question the methods by the polling company. Nevertheless, we do have some preliminary data. We also have had a few state polls released and at least one of the national polls was nice enough to release regional data. One of the other challenges that we face is that we have an increase number of undecided voters. We can probably assume that approximately half of all undecided voters (depending on the poll) are Palinites without a candidate. However, there are still many Undecided voters who originally backed a variety of non-Palin candidates and some are truly plain old undecided voters. While these various undecided voters will help determine the ultimate political landscape, we have to assume for now that they will split somewhat proportionately among the various candidates.

While the new landscape is just barely formed, we have some early clues. Mr. Romney moved from about 20 and a half per cent to essentially 23% of the national popular vote. In terms of delegates, it would give him about 725 or so. Not a huge increase, but it give him almost third of all delegates and he is either getting almost his fair of Palinite voters or he is at least hold his own from other sources. Mr. Cain appears to be the biggest winner in the post-Palin era. Prior to her official announcement not to enter the race, Mr. Cain was still slightly behind Mr. Perry in terms of popular vote with just a tad under 16%, while Mr. Perry had 16.5%. He is now at almost 19 and a half per cent. He is almost up to 600 delegates. Most of Mr. Cain’s gains come from the South and West. To one degree or another, there are probably two things going on with Mr. Perry. One, he is not getting his fair share of Palin support and two and is losing support to Mr. Cain at the same time.

Technically, Mr. Perry has also gained in terms of national popular vote, he has moved from 16 and a half per cent to 17 and a half per cent. However, since Mr. Cain and Mr. Romney have risen faster in the post-Palin era, Mr. Perry has slipped to 350 delegates. If regional figures are correct, he actually lost 70 delegates while gaining 20 to 30 in the Midwest. So he is experiencing some regional shifts as well.

Only one recent poll even mentions Mr. Giuliani, so I have to assume that he is still at between 9 and 10 per cent and stuck at about 185 delegates
A week ago, both Dr. Paul and Mr. Gingrich had just under 8 per cent of the national popular and between 115 and 120 delegates each. Mr. Gingrich is still stuck at under 8 per cent, but Dr. Paul is at almost 9%. Interesting, despite the fact that Dr. Paul has an advantage in the popular votes, both are tied with 139 delegates. Of course there could be and probably are other factors at play, but in popular vote, it looks like Dr. Paul is benefiting slightly from Mrs. Palin exit whereas Mr. Gingrich is not.

Mrs. Bachmann has increased her popular vote from 5 to about 5 and a half per cent. So far, not a big jump in popularity for her. Despite her slight jump, she actually lost about a dozen more delegates and is down to just over 50.
Mr. Santorum could not make 3 per cent prior to Mr. Palin’s exit and he still cannot quite crack 3 per cent, so in short he is not benefiting from Mrs. Palin’s exit yet. Although he is getting close to 20 delegates due to slight regional shifts.

All in all, Mr. Romney is still a weak front-runner with Mr. Cain becoming the alternative candidate. It is a positive for Mr. Romney that he appears to be able to be getting a few Palinites to back him, but not very many of them yet. He can take comfort in the fact that most Palinites as well as number of others, have not back anyone else yet either, but they could still line up disproportionately in favor of another candidate.

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