Monday, October 10, 2011

Philip Klein: The Weakness Of The GOP Presidential Field Spells Trouble

Philip Klein from The Washington Examiner has painted a bleak picture of the current crop of candidates for the GOP nomination. Sure, someone will ultimately prevail, and most in the party will line up to vote Obama out of office. However, when the supposed "frontrunner" only garners support of 1 in 5 potential primary voters despite running for president for the past five years, I foresee a lack of the enthusiasm that is needed to unseat a sitting president.
....But to me, the biggest story, and what should be most worrying to Republicans, is how tepid support is for any of the candidates.

In fact, Gallup lists polls of GOP nomination battles taken at this point in every pre-election year dating back to 1959, and over the past half century, no front-runner has ever polled as low as 20 percent....
....Defenders of Romney argue that were he to become the nominee, suddenly, conservatives eager to show President Obama the door would line up behind Romney. But I'm not so sure. Conservative Romney skeptics might hold their noses and vote for him, but will they bang on doors, hang up signs, and make calls for him? Romney has been running for president for nearly five years and is well known, yet four out of five Republican voters don't want him to be the nominee. That should be alarming to the Republican Party.
Read the entire article HERE

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

Romney2012!!!!

Right Wingnut said...

Anon,

Please explain why 80% of the potential primary voters want someone other than Romney. He has the highest name recognition in the field, the most money, the most endorsements, and he's been running for president for 5 years. What gives?

Anonymous said...

Because they are looking for a PERFECT candidate. There is none. They want an entertainer. They want a "comedian". They want a preacher in chief. They want a tough talker. They want someone who doesn't exist.

I certainly hope Americans come to their senses and look at who is the BEST prepared for our dire economic conditions as well as prepared for the unsettled world conditions. Face it.......there are nice people on the GOP stage, but there's no one prepared like Romney is.

Prayers for our country.......

ccr

Anonymous said...

Palin2012!!...not

leighrow said...

I think it is too early for people to commit. I do not understand why Cain's polls are surging. Never in a million years would I have thought that it would be the GOP who introduces a national sales tax with an income tax. I can only imagine what the rates and the 999 tax structure would morph into under an Obama like administration.

Below is an evaluation of the Cain plan from Freedomworks

http://www.freedomworks.org/blog/dean-clancy/herman-cains-999-plan-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugl

First we had Bush who couldn't spend enough and now we have a MANADATORY national sales tax being cheered by the GOP!!

and people criticize Romney on STATE healthcare legislation!!

Nothing makes sense to me anymore!

ROMNEY 2012 ALL THE WAY!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Your chart shows a very low correlation of high approval numbers at this stage to ultimately winning the nomination -- let alone the white house.

We ARE in a much different environment, right now. The Tea Party is really pushing hard for an ultra conservative -- even though he/she would have no chance in the general election (despite Bachman's claim that we don't have to settle, this year).

This is the first time there's been such an active group of ultra conservatives so it's only natural that the support for someone center right is going to be smaller, at this stage.

One thing these ultra conservatives will INSIST on, however, is that Obama NOT gain another 4 years. If Romney is the candidate, many, many of those pulling for "anyone but Romney" WILL be putting up signs and cheering for Mitt.

You just watch.

Slick-Willy said...

The reason people are less satisfied than they have ever been is because everyone is aware of every candidate's warts. From '59-'99 media was a turtle compared to today's world. Candidates could get away with massive positions shifts between speaking engagements in Georgia and New York and no one would know in many cases. People simply heard less reporting so they heard less bad reporting about candidates and the electorate just fell in line. Today, people become far more aware than they ever have before. '08 tells us that. The internet has changed the rules.

If you notice, '08 was the first time a front runner in Oct didn't win the nomination since at least before '59--and the guy who won the '08 nomination had 16% in October and never breached 40% until the race was completely over. We live in a different world--electorate rules have changed. The 45%+ front runners early are a thing of the past.

Slick-Willy said...

Also, you're silly "4 of 5 dislike Romney" nonsense is absurd. It's a false notion that 80% are for anyone but Mitt. It's a fruit basket of personalities, priorities and values and right now 20% like Mitt better than anyone else, 20% don't know who they like and 60% like at least 1 other candidate better than they like Mitt.

It's true that some won't like Mitt even if he wins--but that will be true of ANY candidate. However, Mitt's overall positives w/in the party destroy other candidates--Perry's, for example. Perry would have a much more difficult time rallying the party if he is victorious. That's evident from his very low positives among republicans and his very low poll numbers since he's been vetted.

"Defenders of Romney argue that were he to become the nominee, suddenly, conservatives eager to show President Obama the door would line up behind Romney..."

There will be nothing "sudden" about it. The majority of conservatives truly are in the "anybody but Obama" camp already. When that anybody becomes necessarily Mitt (or Perry or Cain), they'll fall in behind them w/energy because they desperately want refuge from O's presidency.

Slick-Willy said...

OK, full disclosure. I JUST read an interesting article that completely contradicts my theory for why Mitt is sitting at 20-25%. Frankly, as much as I enjoyed my argument, he makes a very strong argument and uses some compelling data:

http://race42012.com/2011/10/11/why-romneys-ceiling-isnt/

Ohio JOE said...

"I do not understand why Cain's polls are surging." Because the other major candidates that are left are not impressive.

Right Wingnut said...

OJ, Exactly. Whenever a candidate loses support, or a potential candidate opts not to run, the support shifts to candidates other than Romney. That's very telling. As of now, the ABR vote is anywhere from 75-84% depending on the poll.

ellie said...

I'm not worried. Romneyw will be the nominee. You can either be part of the parade, or you can just stand and the sidelines grumbling that your person is not in.

Ohio JOE said...

Well RW, I really think it is too early to tell how big the ABR vote is. To his credit, he has moved up a few points in terms of national popular vote while Mr. Cain has move up a little higher. Ultimately there is a high amount of undecided voters. To be sure, many or not Pro-Romney, but until they actually do support one candidate or another, we have to assume that at least some of them will consider voting for Mr. Romney so it is a double edge sword.

Ohio JOE said...

"Romneyw will be the nominee." Well, that is what they said about Mr. Guiliani and he only ended up with one delegate.

leighrow said...

Ohio Joe.

...and Cain's lack of political record and desire to create a national sales tax is impressive?

Cain is on easy street. Cain can say anything because he doesn't have a political record in the most liberal state in the country to answer to.

Cain didn't have to work with a legislature that was 87% liberal. Cain could have never passed 999 in MA. ROmney passed ROmneycare but ROmney paid for it dearly by the costly and controversial amendments the liberals added after ROmneys vetos. The legislature can over ride a governor's veto when their majority is 87%.


It is easy for Cain to get all puffy about his straight talk. He would require more than straight talk to install a conservative agenda in a state like MA.

Romney did however reduce MA 3 billion debt to a 2 billion rainy day fund. In 4 years Romney did move job creation from 50th in the nation to 47th. It does not sound like much but for MA that is significant.

People have to also consider that Cain is a radio talk show host with a conservative demographic,so Cain knows precisely what to say to gin up his base.

I am not into flash and big talk so perhaps that is why I gravitate to someone like Romney.

Ohio JOE said...

"Cain didn't have to work with a legislature that was 87% liberal." Yes, he was smart enough not immigrate to a liberal mandate state.

Anonymous said...

OJ, so you think conservatives should just abandon liberal states and refuse to live there? That conservatives should stop trying to improve how liberal states are run? That's an interesting solution to the proble--roll over and play dead.

In Arizona, we have had such an influx of people from blue states in the past few years. They move to red states because of the greater freedom and lower taxes, and then they vote the same stupid way they have voted in their blue states. It's actually a stupid strategy. Spoiling their nests and then moving and spoiling ours. Sad, but true.

AZ

leighrow said...

Old Joe,

Or maybe Cain does not possess the know how to lead in a liberal state. So conservatives like Cain take the easy way out and don't take the political risk to govern in a liberal state. They just stay in the deep conservative south and speak,(not govern), their conservative talking points to a conservative demographic.

Cain's train is on easy street. Cain is not accountable to any political record because he has never governed and he never had to make the tough decisions.

I am not comfortable voting for someone who has no political record as president of the united states.

Ohio JOE said...

Well AZ, I was talking partly tongue and cheek and partly out of frustration. I realize that not everybody is lucky enough to be able to move from place to place, but I for one came to America to have more freedom in terms of religion, politics and economics. It may be a bad attitude on my part, I am am fed up with Northeastern states trying to be more like the rest of the world and less like America.

leighrow said...

Ohio Joe,

I think I am on the same page as you. When Bush was president and when Republicans were in the majority for 6 years. The Republicans did not act like Republicans. Bush spent and spent and Bush expended minimal effort in enforcing the border. Bush seemed to believe that illegal immigration was an accepted practice like McCain and other liberal republicans. The Republicans that behaved like Democrats were not from only the Northeast, they were from Texas,Arizona,and the south like Lindsey Graham and several others.

I strongly agree that the GOP needs a fiscal conservative and someone who will enforce the border. Romney sees how illegal immigration is impacting states from unsustainable cost increases in education,healthcare and how it is burdening their legal systems.

Romney is absolutely not in any way like an Olympia Snow or a Collins from Maine.