Mitt Romney leads President Obama 46% to 43% accross 12 pivotal states which have decided Presidential elections since the 2000 Bush-Gore race, in a new poll released today by Purpel Stategies. These states, which encompass every region of the nation, have swung back and forth between Republicans and Democrats, some with a winning margin as narrow as three points. Obama fares better against Texas Governoer Rick Perry, leading 46% -44%.
PR Newswire which carried the story:
"Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that have decided presidential elections for the past dozen years, and will do so again in 2012: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Eight of these states won by President Obama in 2008 have swung between Republican and Democratic candidates since 1996. The four others (NH, MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by three points or less at least once since 2000."
"The survey finds President Obama with a 41 percent job approval rating in the 12 states, all of which he carried in 2008. The poll also shows that in these 12 states, 24% of those surveyed have a favorable view of Texas Governor Rick Perry; among independents, 19% view Perry favorably. Head-to-head matchups show a statistical dead heat: Romney, who is viewed favorably by 32% of respondents, holds a 46%-43% lead over Obama, while the President leads Perry by a margin of 46% to 44% in a general election matchup. On issues, nearly half - 49% - rate "jobs and economic growth" as the most important issue facing America; 23% say "government spending and tax cuts" are the nation's top priority."
The poll breaks out the nation into four regions: The Rust Belt (New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania) - The Heartland (Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota) - The Sourthern Swing (Florida, Virginia and North Carolina) and The Wild West ( Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada).
In the head to heads, Romney leads Obama as follows:
Rust Belt 46% - 42%; South 48% - 43% ; West 45% - 42%, while Obama wins the Heartland 48% - 44%.
On the other hand, Rick Perry demonstrates significant national weakness, loses to Obama in the Heartland 49% - 40% Rust Belt 46% - 44% and West 45% 43%, while managing to only tie the President in his home region of the South with 46% each.
These results indicate Romney is best positioned to beat Obama and to deny him the Electoral College votes he'll need to secure a second term. He runs strongest in the areas Obama turned from red to Blue in 2008, as well as some swing areas.
There is lots of data in this poll and the group has a nifty interactive format.
About PURPLE STRATEGIES:
Purple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative.
Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms – National Media and Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan.
For more: www.purplestrategies.com
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