Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Mike Huckabee's Window of Opportunity

The level of GOP dissatisfaction with the current crop of presidential candidates has created a window of opportunity for Mike Huckabee to enter the race for the Republican nomination.


If he chooses to do so:

Will opponents and their surrogates balk at Huckabee's change of heart?  ("All the factors say go, but my heart says no.")  Probably, but Mike Huckabee can turn it around by stating that their constant fighting on the debate stage and their lack of focus on reforms has given him heartburn.

Will pundits frame the entrance as too late citing Rick Perry's recent example of imploding on the debate stage? They will try but Mike Huckabee is best known for being an articulate, quick witted debater. While he has not been on the current debate stage, he has been on the hot seat-the HotSeat segment of his show-where he has debated liberals on economic, social, and foreign policy related issues. In addition, Huckabee has hosted conservative guests highlighting topics such as the debt ceiling, healthcare reform, job creation, Israeli/Palestinian conflict, and the FairTax.

Will his opponents place a target on his back like they did with Rick Perry in the last three debates? Hard to say. But given that Mike Huckabee had most of them on his show where they could highlight their platforms and set their records straight, it is highly unlikely that they would attack him right away.

Is there enough time for Huckabee to frame the debate? Yes, Mike Huckabee wrote in his book A Simple Government 12 chapters showcasing underlying principles and solutions to make America strong. All Huckabee has to do is provide additional detail on his reforms. That will allow voters to see that Huckabee's 10 1/2 years of managing a microcosm of the federal government has left him best prepared to take on the challenge.

Is there room for another GOP candidate-a late entry? Yes, the straw poll conducted in Florida is one such poll that shows dissatisfaction with Mitt Romney and Rick Perry--71% of the ballots cast were against the two front runners. Herman Cain won the straw poll earning more than Mitt Romney and Rick Perry combined.

Recent polling continues to show that undecided and not sure is still a preferred option amongst the voters.

McClatchy-Marist 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
Undecided 14%
Mitt Romney 13%
Not Romney or Perry 33%

Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
Not Sure 11%
Not Romney or Perry 36%

CBS News/New York Times 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
Someone else 7%
Undecided (vol.) 12%
No one 2%
Don't know 10%
Not Romney or Perry 25%

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2012 Presidential Survey
None of these 6%
Not sure 10%
Not Romney or Perry 36%

PPP 2012 GOP Nomination Survey
Someone else/Not sure 8%
Not Romney or Perry 42%

Economist/YouGov 2012 Presidential Survey
Other 6%
No preference 8%
Not Romney or Perry 44%

POLITICO/George Washington University 2012 Battleground Poll
Unsure 11%
Not Romney or Perry 35%

Fox News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey
Too soon to say 9%
Don’t know 4%
Not Romney or Perry 36%

As Huckabee supporters continue to pray that their candidate enters the race, the question remains:

Will Mike Huckabee throw his hat into the ring?



H/T The Argo Journal for Survey Data and Compilation




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Cross posted at I Like Mike Huckabee 2012

16 comments:

marK said...

TC,

I say this with all the respect that you have earned and fully deserve. This ship has sailed.

Seriously, get over it. Let it go.

marK

Anonymous said...

TC,

The Rombots are going to roast you for this post. Didn't you see Bosman's article from Saturday (http://www.rightspeak.net/2011/09/mitt-romney-will-be-nomineeget-over-it.html). The omination process is over. Romney has won (even though it is months until the first primary)...so if you don't support Romney just shut up. Your opinion is not important. Just support Romney. It is the only way.

A.J.R.

Anonymous said...

* The nomination process...

Anonymous said...

AJR,

Bosman's post was over the top, as are many of his posts. Don't get your undies all bunched up over it.

I, and many other Romney supporters, want to see Sarah get in. Yes, there are some real knuckle draggers like Ellie who don't, but many of us would very much like to see Palin in.

No need to lash out at all of us as a group.

Ben said...

It ain't gonna happen!

Anonymous said...

Dan,

I guess I should be more specific about Rombots. When I say that I am not referring to many on this site. I don't consider you, hamaca, Get Real, AZ, Noelle and some others Rombots. I probably should say that more often. Hope all is well with you!

A.J.R.

Anonymous said...

I gotta go fix my thong. It is really bothering me. :)

A.J.R.

Revolution 2012 said...

He won't get in.

He won't want to take a chance on leaving Fox and not winning.

Add to that, his belief that Perry stabbed him in the back in 08.

He won't want to syphon votes away from Romney and possibly boosting Perry's numbers.

I expect him in the end to endorse Romney.

Anonymous said...

Gee, with Palin, Christie, now suggest Huckabee, why not Guiliani, or Ryan or King, or DeMint. Let's just have a grand old party. The libs would really love that. Maybe we can take each other out and leave Barrack standing.
Right now we need a candidate who can win and every poll points to Romney being that candidate. Mitt has said over and over again the more the merrier.

GetReal said...

I expect Huck to support Cain, except in the off chance he and Romney work out a VP deal, which I don't consider very likely. Oh, and thanks for the mention AJ.

Anonymous said...

AJR, I am blushing! Thanks for the compliment.

I think Huck will not jump in; he would look really stupid. Talk about a flip-flop! That would be one meme he would have a hard time using against Romney if he (Huck) did decide to run.

Has anyone noticed that only Romney is constantly accused of flip-flops even though Huck, Perry, and other candidates have certainly had their own changes of heart. Perry has had to apologize for several things, although he won't apologize for rewarding illegal immigration--choosing to lecture everyone else about how lacking in compassion they are. I am inclined to believe that the Vanderbilt University study regarding Mitt and the flip-flop has real merit.

AZ

Political Dean said...

The biggest reason that Huckabee won't get in is that he supported in-state tuition breaks for illegals when he was governor. Kind of hard to take on Perry when he was Perry before Perry was Perry.

Anonymous said...

haha......I saw this post and wondered if there was something with Huckabee getting in and thinking, "seriously"?? If he had decided to do it a few months ago, I'd say, "fine". But at this point, unless one is EXTREMELY prepared mentally/intellectually for real debates and issues as well as campaign/financially organized, figure out another to HELP our America. Perry's recent obvious lack of prep to be on the national scene causes me to feel embarrassment for him. (Altho personally, I am glad the "conservative Perry" charade is now public.)

The spin doctors are working hard on Herman Cain. That's fine. Actually, a challenging primary will prepare the eventual candidate for what could be a vicious, dishonest general election.

We will need to heal the wounds and stand together! So.....we need those wounds to be superficial, not deep because Obama must be defeated!

Anonymous said...

oh did God tell huckster to run now? Perry isn't the only one with in state tuition for illegals problem.

Anonymous said...

I wish you would sign your posts, Anon. Sometimes I am really ashamed of your comments. TC is engaging in some pretty wishful thinking since she really dislikes Romney and is finding Perry pretty difficult to support.

It is true that Huck is soft on illegal immigration. In fact, that was one of his many flip-flops in '08; he changed his immigration position from one side to the other in about 6 weeks time. I remember; I live in a Border state, and illegal immigration really matters here.

AZ

TexasConservative said...

Is Huckabee Reconsidering?

http://wiserepublic.com/2011/09/28/is-huckabee-reconsidering-2/