Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Romney EVEN with Obama

According to Nate Silver's analysis today, adjusting the polling numbers for multiple polls to account for name recognition, Mitt is running neck and neck with Obama.

Is OBAMA Against ROMNEY a TOSS -UP ?
By Nate Silver

OBAMA vs Republican General Election Polls
with name recognition adjustments, since 3 / 1/ 2011

...............Opponent....Polls.............OBAMA....GOP Candidate.........Margin

...............Giuliani...............3..................... 46.8..................48.2................ - 1.3
...............Romney.............17..................... 48.6..................46.4................ + 2.1


...............Ron Paul.............6..................... 50.1.................. 44.9............... + 5.2
...............Perry...................5..................... 50.4.................. 44.6............... + 5.9
...............Huntsman..........6..................... 50.7.................. 44.3............... + 6.5


...............Pawlenty...........13.................... 50.9................... 44.1.............. + 6.9
...............Johnson............ 3......................51.0................... 44.0.............. + 7.0
...............Cain.................. 5...................... 51.4................... 43.6.............. + 7.8
...............Bachmann....... 10..................... 52.7.................. 42.3............... + 10.3
...............Santorum..........3...................... 52.8................. 42.2.............. + 10.7
...............Gingrich...........10..................... 53.1.................. 41.9............... +11.3
.............. Palin.................12..................... 55.0................. 40.0............... + 15

I deleted candidates like Barbour and Daniels and Christie and Huckabee who have said they were not running , although the results for Romney do not change even if I left them in. Silver makes the classic electability argument. Do you want to win or do you want to feel 100 %

CraigS

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1 comment:

larry said...

Anyone with under 5 poll should not be included.