Wednesday, June 1, 2011

PPP Polling: Mitt Romney is the man to beat in Iowa

....Romney's leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he's at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With 'somewhat conservative' voters he's at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those 'very conservative' folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.....
........Pawlenty doesn't poll the strongest head to head among Romney among 'very conservative' voters- he leads by 17 compared to a 21 point lead for Palin and a 24 point advantage for Bachmann with that group. But with center right voters- those calling themselves 'somewhat conservative'- Romney leads Pawlenty by just a single point while he has a 19 point advantage over Palin and a 22 point lead over Bachmann with that group. What that says to me is that many Republicans are looking for someone more conservative than Romney but someone who isn't bound to get creamed in the general election the way Palin, Bachmann, and Cain probably would. That's very good news for Pawlenty if it ever plays itself out in real life.
Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the Republican candidate for President next year?

Mitt Romney 21%
Herman Cain 15%
Sarah Palin 15%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Michele Bachmann 11%
Tim Pawlenty 10%
Ron Paul 8%
Jon Huntsman 0%
Someone else/Undecided 8%


Mitt Romney 26%
Herman Cain 16%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Michele Bachmann 14%
Ron Paul 11%
Tim Pawlenty 10%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Someone else/Undecided 8%

Mitt Romney vs Other Candidates:
Head-to-Head: (Romney/Candidate)

Tim Pawlenty 41/41/18 ( - )
Sarah Palin 48/41/11 (-7)
Michele Bachmann 46/38/16 (-12)
Herman Cain 48/34/19 (-14)

PPP surveyed 481 usual Iowa Republican primary voters from May 27th to 30th. Themargin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%.
The full story HERE.
To view the crosstabs click the PPP icon below:


BOSMAN said...

Jon Huntsman WHO???


Anonymous said...


This race could be over before it even starts!


Anonymous said...

Congrats to Mitt. Strong showing of support. I am happy with Palin's support.


marK said...

This is good news.

However, I remember well back in 2007 when Mitt Romney was "...the man to beat in Iowa".

That did not turn out so well.

"The hen is the wisest of all the animal creation because she never cackles until after the egg has been laid." (Abraham Lincoln)

BOSMAN said...

That's true Mark.

Last time, Romney practically lived there.

This time around, he's playing, "Hard-T0-Get". It seems to be paying off!

Perhaps, Absence Makes the Heart Grow Fonder.

Anonymous said...

Romney is the man to beat. Period.

Ohio JOE said...

"Jon Huntsman WHO???"
Haha, the best part about this poll is that PPP spent a whole tweet describing the one Huntsman supporter from Waverly Iowa.

Noelle said...

I don't understand why Huntsman's name is mentioned as being among the heavyweights. I have not seen any indication that he has anything close to the support necessary to win anything.

Corep said...

Good news here, but best news for Romney and his prospects are coming from the market and the economy. Todays news on home prices, anemic job creation, and manufacturing slow down combined with the overall down news over the last 3 weeks has the phrase "double dip recession" coming up.

and who is the best person to fix the economy?

if things turn bad this summer and stay bad into the fall i expect to see Mitts IA numbers get even better. Also i expect to see Cain emerge as his IA contender not Pawlenty

BOSMAN said...

Lets see:

If Romney WINS:


Do we really need to drag this out and wait until he wins FL also?

corep said...


i put mitts odds on those states as follows right now-

IA - 43%
NH 80%
NV 90%
SC 35%

if the economy is worse in Jan-

IA- 65%
NH 90%
NV 95% (nothing is ever 100%)
SC 60%