Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.
“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”GOP Nomination:
Mitt Romney 23%
Michele Bachmann 22%
Herman Cain 10%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Ron Paul 7%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Rick Santorum 4%
Jon Huntsman 2%
The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines, was based on telephone interviews with 400 likely Republican caucus-goers June 19 to 22. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
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5 comments:
Romney couldn't write a better scenario. I'm lovin this.
Poor Tim--after all that hard work. He's a MUCH BETTER candidate than Bachmann. This stinks for him, but it's good for Romney.
-Martha
Bachmann is unelectable. Period.
-Martha
For one thing--the big hair. It's gotta go, Michelle. I thought Palin's bumpit was bad.
-Martha
1. Kathie Obradovich of the DMR, in her video explanation of the poll, discusses how they do the poll differently than others. They start with registered GOP and independent lists and ask them if they are definitely or likely to attend the caucuses. On this basis, the poll will likely under count independents and swing voters and those who have not made up their mind about caucusing at this point. Romney is unexpectedly doing best with people making less than $50,000, the economically disadvantaged. If he brings his message to IA and can get those people to come out, he could find a way to add to his current support on Caucus night.
2. The biggest impact this will have on Pawlenty is his fund-raising. As Jennifer Duffy of Cook Political Report said, if Pawlenty isn't viable in IA, he is probably not viable for the nomination. This poll will extend the narrative of being weak in IA and the money he needs is likely to stay on the sidelines. That will make Ames a last stand. I expect that Pawlenty has attracted enough money to play strongly at Ames (Busses, food, entertainment, tickets, etc.) but he will have to push everything he has into the middle of the table to do it. He will have to pull back all expense in NH or SC and spend his time on the ground in IA or on the phone dialing for dollars, preferably from an IA area code. And he is going to have to beat Bachmann's buzz and a new Paul mob/campaign that suddenly thinks it should be better organized on the ground. Anything short of an Ames win means Pawlenty's outcome is probably sealed by Labor Day.
That's not bad for someone who has said he won't participate in the Ames Poll.
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