Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Suffolk University Poll: Mitt Romney Benefits more in the absence of Huckabee and Trump

Q23 If the Republican Primary for President were held today and the candidates were (READ LIST), for whom will you vote or toward whom would you LEAN at this time?
Likely/Somewhat likely voters (468 total):

Mitt Romney 17%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Sarah Palin 10%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Rudy Giuliani 6%
Donald Trump 5%
Michele Bachmann 4%
Mitch Daniels 4%
Ron Paul 4%
Herman Cain 3%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
John Huntsman 0%
Gary Johnson 0%
Buddy Roemer 0%

Q23A {CALLBACKS TO HUCKABEE AND TRUMP VOTERS} Now that has withdrawn from the race, who will you vote for in the Republican Primary?

Mitt Romney 29%
Sarah Palin 16%
Newt Gingrich 2%
Rudy Giuliani 10%
Michele Bachmann 4%
Mitch Daniels 2%
Ron Paul 4%
Herman Cain 3%
Tim Pawlenty 8%
Rick Santorum 6%
John Huntsman 0%
Gary Johnson 0%
Buddy Roemer 0%

Consolidated Q23 & Q23A:

Mitt Romney 20%
Sarah Palin 12%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Rudy Giuliani 7%
Michele Bachmann 4%
Mitch Daniels 4%
Ron Paul 5%
Herman Cain 4%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Rick Santorum %
John Huntsman 0%
Gary Johnson 0%
Buddy Roemer 0%

Races and Issues of the Day Fielded 5/10 to 5/17 5 were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican........ for whom will you vote or toward whom would you LEAN at this time?
1070 voters:

Obama/Candidate/Other-Undecided:

Mitt Romney 46/43/11 (-3)
Newt Gingrich 52/38/11 (-14)
Tim Pawlenty 47/31/22 (-16)
Mitch Daniels 48/30/23 (-18)
Michele Bachmann 50/30/20 (-20)
The survey was of 1070 Likely voters and was taken 5/10-5/17. 667 Republican of which 468 said they were very/somewhat likely to vote in the Republican Primary.
The crosstabs can be viewed here.

4 comments:

CraigS said...

The data in this poll is screwed up as the results after the callback (repolling Huckabee and Trump voters) wound up separating some of these voters, based upon their second choices but keeping some Huckabee and Trump votes in. Nevertheless, the follow up results have Romney opening a 10+ point lead on Palin and Gingrich

Revolution 2012 said...

Hi craig,

I don't put to much credence in a poll that started out geared one way and then in the middle of the sixth inning, the rules change.

BOSMAN said...

I think the poll next week will tell it all.

Everyone will have had some time to think about their second choices.

Right Wingnut said...

Bos,

Not really. Most people don't think about this stuff this early.