Monday, May 30, 2011

Is entering the race the best way to promote Palinism?

First of all, I do not think that I am the best person to represent my camp, but I will take this opportunity nevertheless and I thank Mr. Bosman for giving me this opportunity.

Perhaps even Mrs. Palin herself is not 100% sure whether or not she will run, but most signs point to a Palin run. There can only be one winner and at this stage in the game I am aware that even if she were to run, they would be less than a 50% chance that she would win. However, all candidates are in a similar boat and as long as she runs a decent campaign, the stiff competition in and of itself should not stop her from running. If she does awful and has a bad campaign, it would not have been worth it. However, if she runs a good campaign and makes a difference, it will be worth it whether or not she becomes the nominee.

One things that most candidates should and do think about is how their candidacy will effect the race. With the dynamics of the race changing that effect will be different. Not all Palinites view the state of the race the same way and the way. Mrs. Palins may also view the race is different from the rest of us.

Other than meeting Mrs. Palin once and giving her my best wishes, I do not know what her intentions are. I can only put together bits and pieces from what I have heard from others. I believe that Mrs. Palin wants a strong Conservative to be the nominee and I think that she wants a variety of Conservative issues to be discussed during the campaign. Simple being part of the debate will be a chance to promote Conservative values and ideas (though some argue she can do that effectively outside the race.) To be sure, there are various other candidates who will promote Conservatism in some fashion, but I for one believe that Mrs. Palin is in a unique position to promote those ideas and values.

Assuming for a moment, that Mrs. Palin would not be in the race, Mr. Romney would be the front-runner and the other major candidates would probably be Mr. Gingrich, Mrs. Bachmann, Dr. Paul, Mr. Cain and Mr. Pawlenty among a possible few others. I suspect that Mrs. Palin would prefer Mrs. Bachman of that bunch and be least likely to favor Mr. Gingrich. The rest of the candidates, she probably feels indifferent about on balance. Of course, she could endorse Mrs. Bachman, but apart from that she has no incentive to endorse anybody. Mr. Gingrich is probably no going to gain any traction so she does not have to worry about him and she probably does not feel strongly enough to endorse on candidate over another. So she is probably asking herself ‘why don’t I consider jumping in myself.’

While it would take a short while for the dust to begin to settle, Mrs. Palin’s entry would put her into a strong second place. At that point, there would be a few scenarios that would begin to take place. First, there could be a knock down bitter fight between Mr. Romney and Mrs. Palin or there could be a compromise candidate emerges. There are Pros and Cons to either scenario from a Palinite point of view. Under the first scenario, we would get a chance to politically wound and bloody Mr. Romney and force them to come to terms with the Conservative wing of the party (win or lose,) but in the process we would be politically bloodied as well even if we win the race. Of course if a third candidate can emerge and win, we would get part of what we want, but not all.

Without Mrs. Palin running, would it be easier to take down Mr. Romney or not? Should she endorse somebody else or not? I realize that Palinites differ on who their second choice should be (some even have Mr. Romney himself as their second choice,) but now that we do not have to worry about Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Trump, Mr. Daniels et al. I for one believe that our only target during the primary process should be Mr. Romney. I thus hope that my fellow Palinites keep this in mind. I guess we shall see how the cookie crumbles, but my guess is that Mrs. Palin’s entrance into the race will promote Palinism.


Anonymous said...

Great job OJ. Why do you think Sarah Palin is in a unique position to promote conservatism?

I think Palin has 2 targets if she gets it--Bachmann and Romney. I think she hurts T-Paw more than Bachmann, but really it's anyone's guess. He's not gaining traction very fast, and this would probably make it harder.

I don't think she is running, unless she is outright lying to FOX.


Anonymous said...

I don't think she's running either. I think she's doing what she does best, conning her base out of their hard earned money. I wonder how the folks at C4P feel about donating their money for her "family vacation"? Palin knows that throwing her hat into the ring will cause all of her dirty little secrets to come out of her closets in reference to her reign of terror in Alaska as well as her dysfunctional family. She's not going to take a chance on that happening. Basically, Sarah is very lazy, she loves that she doesn't even have to work and can make a ton of money via her speaking engagements where her ghostwriters do all the work. Trust me, she's not running.

Anonymous said...

Not only does she think we’re stupid like her bots–she’s counting on it.

CraigS said...

What exactly is " Palinism ?"Is it like other " isms" ?

BOSMAN said...

Great Post OJ,

I think that staying out of the race and promoting her views would benefit Palin the most.

The 2012 race will be tough. At this point in time, Palin's image is not quite up to snuff to garner enough votes to win the general election.

If she gets in and loses in the primary, she's damaged goods. If she squeaks by the primary and loses to Obama, you don't get a second chance.

For her, waiting is best. She has 4 to 8 years to repair her image and at the same time build up the bank account.

I personally hopes she runs because she takes the wind out of the 2nd tier candidates and will rally the establishment behind Romney.

Doug NYC GOP said...

Well done, OJ. Welcome to the wonderful world of posting. a great first effort...even though I disagree with you wanting to topple Romney:)

I hope to see more of this quality writing from you going forward.

Anonymous said...

PALIN 2016!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

I think 2012 is Palin's only real shot. She's never going to be any hotter than she is now. This incredible media manipulation cannot go on indefinitely, and she doesn't appear to want to run for a lower office to build up more creds. I don't even think she can win a lower office at this point.

Bosman, maybe you're right that she can do something in the next 4-8 years to improve her image and qualifications, but I don't see it.


Anonymous said...

Palinism is the belief that Sarah Palin, by virtue of being Sarah Palin, is the single candidate worthy enough to carry the conservative banner.

(Nevermind that she has no more conservative record than the others, or that she is in line with pretty much every candidate on the issues.)


Revolution 2012 said...

Welcome OJ,

I am in the group that believes a Palin run will help Romney.

A question to think about might be, will she or won't she if she knows this to be true?

hamaca said...

Great to have a post from you, OJ. I hope there will be more.

As I read your comments, one thought came to mind--not the first time I've wondered this--what level of civility (or lack thereof) will the GOP candidates have this time directly with each other as compared to 2008? In what manner with the candidates endeavor to differentiate themselves from each other?

Four years ago, things did get somewhat "animated" at times in debates, interviews, and commercials. There were lessons learned. Also, this time, we have a known quantity we're all battling in Obama.

I think Guiliani is perhaps the toughest debater when he's on and motivated. He comes from the trenches in New York and this showed at times in 2008.

Anonymous said...

OJ, congratulations on your first, hopefully the first of many, front page posts. I really enjoyed the read, I would like to say that we should make a distinction that any and all Republican contenders are better than our current President but our party does need a good old fashioned kick in the ass and thus far Palin has been the only consistent conservative who has pushed for this kick. Pawlenty is starting to say the tough things that need to be said, unfortunately he is getting his talking points from Palin.


Ohio JOE said...

Thanks everybody for your comments.

Ohio JOE said...

"A question to think about might be, will she or won't she if she knows this to be true?" BTW, that is an interesting question. While you may be correct (that Mrs. Palin's enterance helps Mr. Romney,) I have to ask this counter - question: if Mrs. Palin does not run, who can challenge Mr. Romney? On the one hand, the natural answer would be Mr. Pawlenty, most of us are still waiting for him to crack 10%.

As to your question, while I believe many if not most in the Palin camp would like to see somebody other than Mr. Romney, it appears that Mrs. Palin herself is not anti-Romney per se. However, I do not think she is Pro-Romney either. Thus, as things stand, I do not think she is concerned one way or the other if her being in the race helps or hurts Mr. Romney.

Now if somebody emerges that she has strong feelings about, her decision would all of a sudden become a bit more complicated.

Anonymous said...

OJ, Congrats on being a FPP. I am looking forward to seeing what you write next.


Ohio JOE said...

"I am looking forward to seeing what you write next." Haha, thanks, but do I need to write again?

Anonymous said...

Only if you want to....but if you do, I look forward to reading it.


Anonymous said...

Oj, how about you write a post about Palin not endorsing Iowa ethanol subsidies? It might just blow some Romney supporter's minds to see a politician that doesn't pander to the Iowa electorate?


GetReal said...

While I don't want to see Romney toppled, I enjoyed your first piece nonetheless. Great job, OJ! Congrats on getting a FPP, I hope you decide to write one again.

Pablo said...

Good post, OJ! I am glad to see you start writing.

Ohio JOE said...

Thanks, if I get an invitation, I'll writr something a little different.

BOSMAN said...


"Thanks, if I get an invitation, I'll write something a little different."

You don't need an invitation. you are a Front Page Contributor ALREADY with 1 post under your belt and hopefully hundreds more in the future!

Look for yourself:

Go to the bottom of the page Right Column.

Under Contributors: Ohio Joe

Also, under Categories, you will see, -Ohio Joe