First of all, I do not think that I am the best person to represent my camp, but I will take this opportunity nevertheless and I thank Mr. Bosman for giving me this opportunity.
Perhaps even Mrs. Palin herself is not 100% sure whether or not she will run, but most signs point to a Palin run. There can only be one winner and at this stage in the game I am aware that even if she were to run, they would be less than a 50% chance that she would win. However, all candidates are in a similar boat and as long as she runs a decent campaign, the stiff competition in and of itself should not stop her from running. If she does awful and has a bad campaign, it would not have been worth it. However, if she runs a good campaign and makes a difference, it will be worth it whether or not she becomes the nominee.
One things that most candidates should and do think about is how their candidacy will effect the race. With the dynamics of the race changing that effect will be different. Not all Palinites view the state of the race the same way and the way. Mrs. Palins may also view the race is different from the rest of us.
Other than meeting Mrs. Palin once and giving her my best wishes, I do not know what her intentions are. I can only put together bits and pieces from what I have heard from others. I believe that Mrs. Palin wants a strong Conservative to be the nominee and I think that she wants a variety of Conservative issues to be discussed during the campaign. Simple being part of the debate will be a chance to promote Conservative values and ideas (though some argue she can do that effectively outside the race.) To be sure, there are various other candidates who will promote Conservatism in some fashion, but I for one believe that Mrs. Palin is in a unique position to promote those ideas and values.
Assuming for a moment, that Mrs. Palin would not be in the race, Mr. Romney would be the front-runner and the other major candidates would probably be Mr. Gingrich, Mrs. Bachmann, Dr. Paul, Mr. Cain and Mr. Pawlenty among a possible few others. I suspect that Mrs. Palin would prefer Mrs. Bachman of that bunch and be least likely to favor Mr. Gingrich. The rest of the candidates, she probably feels indifferent about on balance. Of course, she could endorse Mrs. Bachman, but apart from that she has no incentive to endorse anybody. Mr. Gingrich is probably no going to gain any traction so she does not have to worry about him and she probably does not feel strongly enough to endorse on candidate over another. So she is probably asking herself ‘why don’t I consider jumping in myself.’
While it would take a short while for the dust to begin to settle, Mrs. Palin’s entry would put her into a strong second place. At that point, there would be a few scenarios that would begin to take place. First, there could be a knock down bitter fight between Mr. Romney and Mrs. Palin or there could be a compromise candidate emerges. There are Pros and Cons to either scenario from a Palinite point of view. Under the first scenario, we would get a chance to politically wound and bloody Mr. Romney and force them to come to terms with the Conservative wing of the party (win or lose,) but in the process we would be politically bloodied as well even if we win the race. Of course if a third candidate can emerge and win, we would get part of what we want, but not all.
Without Mrs. Palin running, would it be easier to take down Mr. Romney or not? Should she endorse somebody else or not? I realize that Palinites differ on who their second choice should be (some even have Mr. Romney himself as their second choice,) but now that we do not have to worry about Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Trump, Mr. Daniels et al. I for one believe that our only target during the primary process should be Mr. Romney. I thus hope that my fellow Palinites keep this in mind. I guess we shall see how the cookie crumbles, but my guess is that Mrs. Palin’s entrance into the race will promote Palinism.