Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Gallup: Palin and Romney are Effectively Tied

You all know how I feel about polls this far out from an election, but this is the first one to show the effects of Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump exiting the race. I have to think this makes it very tempting for the former Governor of Alaska to get into the race.
....There is no clear front-runner in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Palin, who has given no indication of whether she will run for the nomination, has very high name identification, is near the top of Republicans' nomination preferences, and has a higher Positive Intensity Score than any other well-known candidate. Palin thus must be considered one of the GOP leaders at this point....
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking May 2-15, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Questions asking about the 13 potential candidates measured in this research were rotated among randomly selected samples of Republicans each night; over the 14-day period, each candidate was rated by a minimum of 1,500 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

For the overall ratings of each potential candidate among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, including recognition scores, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points....
Full results and analysis is HERE

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Accualy, according to "that one" poll, Romney and Palin are Effectively Tied. (in that order (c;)

Right Wingnut said...

So...if a hockey game ends in a tie, does it matter which team is listed first?

CraigS said...

Wait a minute. May 2 to May 15 ? Did they just excise Trump and Huckabee and redistribute what was left ? Or did they just not count Huckabee and Trump ? This poll is as stupid as any I have ever seen because it is a classic outright distortion that a grammar school statistics course would laugh at
CraigS

Doug NYC GOP said...

A 13 day polling period? Really?

I'll wait a few more days and a few more polls. I have to go to C4P now to see how Ian the Loon is spinnig this tripe. Talk about a supplicant.

Right Wingnut said...

Doug,

I get it. We can't take it seriously until SEIU's pollster weighs in. LOL

Socrates said...

Sarah has had the highest name recognition rate all along. THAT'S her problem!

When people vote in most polls, they know who she is.

She also has the smallest % of people who are undecided. WHICH MEANS, People for THE MOST PART have already made up their minds on her.

Unfortunately, for her, THAT'S NOT GOOD either!

Doug NYC GOP said...

I have to laugh at C4P - now they are turning on Bachmann. They have a critical story posted, complete with a Bachmann/Romney picture to really get the fire burning.

So manipulative, pathetic and overplayed. And there is the obligatory "Romney is the rich guy" meme, with the cliched references to yachts, etc. (I don't think Mitt owns a yacht, but that doesn't matter in Palinville)

I really appreciate the comic relief they provide.

Anonymous said...

Considering Fox has flushed out all their contract players with Presidential aspirations or kept those who decided not to run, I guess Palin is staying on the payroll.

Doug NYC GOP

BOSMAN said...

Here is a question for Gallup:

If Herman Cain has the least score in Name Recognition, That means that fewest people know who he is.

Then HOW does he garner enough votes to be the overwhelming favorite in the Positive Intensity score?

Duh....chirp.....chirp,,,,

Right Wingnut said...

Bosman,

I wouldn't quibble too much with the results. Gallup has Romney's overall favorable rating at...74%?

That's about 15-20% higher than we typically see in GOP polls.

marK said...

If you read the small print (the '**' note), they are attempting to make up for Trump and Huckabee not being in the race by playing some dodgy games. So this result isn't to be trusted.

OhioJOE said...

"So this result isn't to be trusted." & "This poll is as stupid as any I have ever seen because it is a classic outright distortion that a grammar school statistics course would laugh at" Yes, any poll that is not endorsed by Pollman and the Argo Journal is no good. It is rather funny how they grasp at straws. It is also funny how MWS complains how badly Mrs. Palin is doing at 18% when his candidate (Mr. Pawlenty) is stuck under 10% and is not even in the top 6 despite the exiting of Mr. Trump and Mr. Huckabee.

Those with PDS are a rather entertaining lot.

OhioJOE said...

"I have to laugh at C4P - now they are turning on Bachmann." Good point Doug; it kind of reminds me how your camp has turned on Mr. Santorum, Mr. DeMint, Mr. Limbaugh, Mr. Quinn and a whole host of former Romneyite. Oh well, at least you guys can now druel over Ms. Crawford.