Friday, April 8, 2011

Predictions for Nine Months From Now

Nine months from now we should know who is running and who isn't. I also think that in 9 months some of the candidates may even have washed out, or at least be stagnating at 1% or less.

My predictions are:

Huckabee will have a M-F slot at Fox. Probably Glenn Beck's old slot.

Palin will have decided not to run.

Gingrich will be below 8%.

Trump will be winning the tea party/personality vote and Bachmann will have either washed out or be hovering around 1%.

Pawlenty will have received Huck's endorsement and will be fighting Romney for first place. Further he will have the socon vote mostly sewed up.

Daniels will be in third (and will be my candidate).

Barbour will still be in, but going no where.

Paul and Johnson will be in, but nobody outside of their crazy libertarian following will care.

...

Hillary will have quit her job as Secretary of State and will be primarying Obama.

Obama's surrogates will be in secret negotiations with Giffords to have her replace Biden as VP on the 2012 ticket.

...


Matt "MWS" will be a front page poster here at Rigthspeak.

Ellie will have been outed as Arianna Huffington.

21 comments:

BOSMAN said...

Dan,

1. Matt doesn't need to wait for 9 months!

bosman.rightspeak@gmail.com

fast forward to the end of the Primarries. If there is a winner, WHO?

Anonymous said...

Dan, I think you're mostly spot on, except that I think Bachmann will go further than Trump. Huck will probably get behind Pawlenty, as you say, and he will do everything he can to work nefariously behind the scenes to stop Romney.

If Ellie is AH, then who am I?

-Martha

DanL said...

Martha, I am pretty sure that you are Willow Palin.

DanL said...

Bosman, I predict either Pawlenty or Romney. I think it might be Pawlenty as he will be the go to guy for all the socons as well as all the anybody-but-Romney guys. I think I would prefer Romney of those two. But I go back and forth.

ellie said...

Thanks Dan! I can use the boost in income by being AH!!!!

And all this time I thought Martha was Willow SMITH. :)

GetReal said...

Nice to see you posting here, DanL. I think the better part of your predictions are spot on.

It would be really cool if you guys could get MWS posting here. A very intelligent and entertaining guy, even though when I first read his comments, he was pushing for one of my least favorite likely Republican candidates, Mike Huckabee. If he's Pawlenty-shilling these days, it shouldn't be so bad and he brings plenty of laughs and reasoned debate.

DanL said...

I really don't know what MWS will do. That last part of my prediction was for fun. But I would like to see him here.

Thanks GetReal.

Matt Y. said...

Interesting.

Let's see.

Palin, Huckabee, and Daniels will not run.

This will be the field of candidates:
Romney
Pawlenty
Johnson
Gingrich
Huntsman
Trump
Santorum
Bachmann
Barbour
Roemer
Cain

Bachmann will move to a lead in the national polls with over 20%, with Trump and Romney virtually tied for second in the mid-to-high teens and Pawlenty and Gingrich just breaking double digits. Thus the first tier will have 5 candidates.

The rest of the candidates will not be a significant factor.

Bachmann and Pawlenty will be fighting for the lead Iowa. The other 3 in the top tier will fight for 3rd.

Romney will continue to lead by double digits in New Hampshire; the question will be whether his finish in Iowa will hurt him here. Will he lose his lead here, or perhaps just lose his momentum for the following states by winning with too narrow a margin?

Gingrich and Trump will concentrate on placing well in Iowa and New Hampshire. An impressive showing for either one might help them win South Carolina and Florida, which will be considered free-for-all because the results in the first two states will have a big impact on a candidate's momentum in the next two, and surprising 2nd or 3rd place showings can build momentum just as much as a win.

The race will often draw comparisons to the Democratic race in 03/04, with the question: Will "Dean" (Bachmann) win this time? Romney will be sometimes be compared to Edwards (great hair) and Kerry (accusations of flip-flopping, having a hard time connecting with voters). Pawlenty will also draw comparisons to both. Trump will be the outsider, a la Wesley Clark.

DanL said...

Matt, thanks for contributing. I could see Bachmann really taking off, if she were a governor or senator. But I have a hard time seeing it as a congressman. However, she did amazing fundraising this last quarter, and could easily corner the tea party crowd.

Matt Y. said...

Hi Dan, you're welcome.

I definitely don't think she'll do as badly as you predict, but I don't have an opinion as to exactly how good she'll do. I made a prediction just to make a prediction.

I think she'll probably be somewhere from 5% (and bowing out after IA or NH) to leading the pack.

Matt Y. said...

Dean was governor of Vermont (!) where they still have only two-year terms for their governors (!!) and was leading in the polls for awhile. (!!!)

Although I guess he did serve six terms, but no one knew him before the campaign.

DanL said...

Matt, the only reason I predicted Trump winning the tea party vote was because of the most recent poll showing him winning it at this time.

Strikingly, Trump -- who has received a considerable amount of attention for incorrectly stating that President Obama wasn't born in the U.S. -- finishes first among Tea Party supporters (at 20 percent), followed by Romney (17 percent), Huckabee (14 percent), Palin (12 percent) and Gingrich (9 percent). (Trump hosts the "The Apprentice" on NBC. Msnbc.com is a joint venture between NBC-Universal and Microsoft.)

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/04/06/6420733-nbcwsj-poll-trump-tied-for-2nd-in-2012-gop-field

Matt Y. said...

The three conservatives that I work with in my office are impressed by Trump. Recently they were playing a video clip of him, but I don't know what it was as I joined them in the room too late. They said that he just "says what he thinks," but they also said that he'll probably never be President because he's too "normal" and "thinks like normal people." So I'm not sure if they'd be in that 20 percent or not.

I'll have to show them some negative things about Trump sometime.

Anonymous said...

Matt, I can't believe anyone takes him seriously.

-Martha

Matt Y. said...

BTW, I don't mean to put my co-workers down or anything like that. They're great guys and I enjoy working with them. They're probably just influenced a little too much by talk radio.

(I never listen to talk radio - I think it's boring and I prefer Contemporary Christian music or sports. My biggest conservative influence has been World magazine (whose editor-in-chief is Marvin Olasky) and its blog, which has authors such as Cal Thomas, Ken Blackwell and Anthony Bradley, and in the past, Lynn Vincent).

Anonymous said...

I'm from the Atlantic City, NJ area and when the crooked Trump stories start to pile in...people will see him for the fraud that he is.

jerseyrepublican

Pablo said...

I agree with all of your predictions, expect I don't think Daniels is running. And I don't believe that Hillary will run against Obama. In fact, I do think that she might replace Biden though.

Pablo said...

Oh, and Bachmann will go farther than Trump. Trump will fizzle out. Bachmann is not to be taken lightly.

DanL said...

Bachmann has the chance to shake things up the most. I am quite interested to see what happens with her. She might well make an otherwise boring campaign season quite interesting.

Spenza said...

Trump could have gone very far had he not opened his mouth about the birther stuff. Sure, he has gained a small increase in the polls, but this will inevitably hurt him in the long run.

The MSM will crucify him over this, just as they did Palin, if not worse. He should have NEVER gone there.

Anonymous said...

I love the predictions and I totally love all of the comments. This is a great site! I'm only predicting one thing...Romney all the way!

DD