Overall, Romney is about where he was when he finished second to John McCain in 2008, with 32% of the vote then and 31% now. But that is a far cry from the 40% he earned when PPP last polled the race just before last November’s election. Behind him are Mike Huckabee (15%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Sarah Palin and Ron Paul (10%), Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann (4%), and Haley Barbour (2%), with 12% undecided.
That 2:1 margin would severely narrow if Trump makes good on his flirtation. Romney would still lead but with only 27% to Trump’s 21%, Gingrich and Huckabee each at 12%, and the others in single digits. Trump’s flogging of the birther conspiracy theory of late has gotten him a lot of traction. PPP recently found that 51% of GOP voters nationwide doubt Obama’s citizenship. While that number is only 42% here, Trump actually leads Romney 22-21 with birthers, while no other candidate comes nearly that close in the other variations.Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:
Mitt Romney 68/19/13 (+49)
Rudy Giuliani 62/22/15 (+40)
Ron Paul 53/21/26 (+32)
Rick Santorum 39/17/53 (+22)
Michele Bachmann 38/18/44 (+20)
Tim Pawlenty 34/14/51 (+20)
Mike Huckabee 48/36/16 (+12)
Haley Barbour 24/16/60 (+8)
Sarah Palin 51/39/19 (+12)
Newt Gingrich 45/36/19 (+9)
Mitch Daniels 14/11/75 (+3)
Donald Trump 41/43/16 (-2)
Herman Cain 9/13/78 (-4)
Jon Huntsman 8/13/79 (-5)
Correction in the graph below on Question #15. Palin's percentage should be 10% not 19%
PPP surveyed 384 usual New Hampshire Republican primary voters from March 31st toApril 3rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-5.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
To view the crosstabs click the PPP icon below:
7 comments:
Trump’s flogging of the birther conspiracy theory of late has gotten him a lot of traction. PPP recently found that 51% of GOP voters nationwide doubt Obama’s citizenship. While that number is only 42% here, Trump actually leads Romney 22-21 with birthers, while no other candidate comes nearly that close in the other variations.
Why we continue to focus so much on a Dem pollster, who is funded by Daily Kos and SEIU is beyond me.
Hi All
My BIG question to Jensen and PPP:
I asked them to explain following nuances in their polling :
NH Favorables
Romney + 49
Paul + 32
Bachman + 20
Palin + 12
Huckabee + 12
Gingrich + 9
Barbour + 8
Trump – 2
NH Tea Party Supporters
Romney + 64
Palin + 55
Paul + 51
Gingrich + 49
Bachman + 47
Barbour + 25
Huckabee + 23
Trump + 17
Exactly how do these favorables work out to
Romney 27…..Trump 21 or Trump 23…Romney 21 among Tea
partiers ?
Anybody got a good guess ?
CraigS
Yea, it also does not make sense about Trump's birther stance either. 4% of the entire poll voted for Trump that were Birthers.
"Why we continue to focus so much on a Dem pollster, who is funded by Daily Kos and SEIU is beyond me." Well, it is Pollman's favorite company.
With all these candidates polled, A great question would have been, Who is your SECOND CHOICE?
Half these people aren't going to run.
Why don't they ad a few more names to the list to water down the results. Maybe Oprah or let's see, Derek Jeeter.
New Hampshire is Romney's This Trump thing is a joke.
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