Monday, February 14, 2011

PPP Polling: Sarah Palin is the top Republican in New Mexico

In the presidential field, Johnson also gets no favorite-son bounce, tying for fourth with Newt Gingrich at 13%, behind Sarah Palin’s 20%, Mike Huckabee’s 17%, and Mitt Romney’s 16%. This is the first Western state PPP has polled in which Romney has not led the primary contest—he is at least narrowly the favorite in Nevada, California, Colorado, and Arizona. Bringing up the rear are Tim Pawlenty’s 6%, Ron Paul’s 4%, and Mitch Daniels’ 3%, with 8% preferring an unnamed option or completely undecided. Romney has a bare lead with moderates over Palin and Johnson, but ties with Gingrich for third with conservatives, who favor Palin and Huckabee.
Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:

Mike Huckabee 67/17/15 (+50)
Sarah Palin 69/25/5 (+44)
Mitt Romney 56/29/14 (+27)
Newt Gingrich 53/30/17 (+23)
Gary Johnson 46/33/21 (+13)

If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

Sarah Palin 20%

Mike Huckabee 17%
Mitt Romney 16%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Gary Johnson 13%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Ron Paul 4%
Mitch Daniels 3%
Someone else/Undecided 8%

If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

Sarah Palin 22%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Mitt Romney 16%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Tim Pawlenty 7%
Ron Paul 6%
Mitch Daniels 3%
Someone else/Undecided 12%
PPP surveyed 357 usual New Mexico Republican primary voters from February 4th to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-5.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify
To view the crosstabs click the PPP icon below:

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not a very big sample for this Democratically leaning state.

Anonymous said...

Romney is in a free fall and the Romney fans really need to cease their denial that he is in trouble. Yes, there is a lot of time left, and McCain was in much worse condition and came back. Regardless, Romney is in trouble with his ongoing poor polling.

DanL

ConMan said...

DanL,

Ongoing poor polling?

Is that like having the best numbers against Obama in 90% of the polls?

Is that like coming in first or tieing for first in 90% of the GOP primary polls?

Just what is, "ONGOING" poor polling?

Anonymous said...

ConMan,

What good does it do Romney if he polls well against Obama (and his numbers lately have not really been all that good), but loses the primary. His support in Florida has eroded incredibly over the last several months. Yes he does well in some states, some of which are unimportant like Utah. But he also has been losing some very important states like NM. Coming in third here, but he was first in NM in a poll from last year. No, I don't have all sorts of great graphs to display like Mark Lowe would, but I have been watching the polls, and Romney's support is eroding. Even in states that he is winning, his lead is still eroding. His polling now is a far cry from what it was last summer. He is in trouble.

DanL

ConMan said...

DanL;

they Were not polling all these extra people last year? It was basically Romney, Huckabee, and Palin. Then Gingrich came in and since then most polls have had 6-8 participants. Many of them are bogus.

I'm not trying to argue with you, just pointing out why Romney is not way ahead of the others.

Anonymous said...

ConMan,

The inclusion of Gingrich drives me nuts. But if he runs, he may well siphon off a significant percentage of voters from Romney.

DanL

hamaca said...

Great to see you Dan.

(I think I still have the print out of the post and comments at race showing you banned. Your comment (whatever it was) was replaced by a not-so-nice message to you from Kavon. I had to print it!)

Anyway, it's clear Romney's poll numbers have looked better in the past, i.e they've taken a hit. Do you suppose there is a correlation between his publicity (or lack thereof at times) and the poll numbers? Or could it be more prospective candidates hogging the space? Or do you think more people are coming to the same conclusions as you regarding Mitt's stances?

Anonymous said...

Head-to-Head: (Obama/Candidate/Undecided)

Gary Johnson 51/36/13 (-15)
Mike Huckabee 55/36/9 (-19)
Mitt Romney 53/37/11 (-16)
Newt Gingrich 56/35/9 (-21)
Sarah Palin 62/33/4 (-29)

These numbers on NM were from PPP a few days ago. So they want the Republican nominee to be the person who does the worst against Obama.

Now that makes a lot of sense.

zeke

Anonymous said...

Was this poll taken by PPP or Acorn?

zeke

Anonymous said...

Hamaca, thanks. It's funny about Kavon banning me. All I said was "republicans can kiss 2012 goodbye." I laughed at his response because it was so childish.

About Romney's numbers, I really have been perplexed by their decline. Yes, I think that it is fair to say that the inclusion of more people in these polls, particularly Gingrich, has hurt Romney. If Gingrich weren't running, then it would probably be no big deal for Romney, but it looks like Gingrich will run. Hopefully he will flop badly once the campaign really starts. Newt is the king of flip flops. Add up all the flips by all the rest of the candidates put together, and they would only stand knee high to Gingrich.

But I think that there is some erosion to Romney's numbers among those of us who used to really like him, but are just getting turned off by his pandering and opportunism. Maybe it's only a couple of points, but that may be enough to cost him the nomination.

I can't help but think that Romney is also being hurt by Obamacare. I still think that it is unfair, but I think that it is hurting him.

DanL

Anonymous said...

Thanks to Zeke for posting the numbers showing how each of the candidates would do against Obama in the general election. While Mr. Romney isn't the favorite of Republicans, he is the candidate who is least likely to lose in the general election. That factor could swing some votes to him in the primary when people are thinking more seriously about the whole situation.

An important point is that Sarah Palin may not run, and even if she runs, she may drop out before the New Mexico primary. Mr. Romney may not win this primary, but his overall support is still strong.

Corep said...

pandering and opportunism? ok that cant go unexplained. Care to illuminate us on that one

Anonymous said...

zeke, why do you immediately think this poll was flawed...maybe it was the head to head with Obama that was flawed? I, personally, think they are all flawed. I think they are creating a narrative by sampling specific districts during specific polls to get a narrative they desire. Think about it...why would PPP, a Democratic polling firm, perform these free Republican, polls for the past 2 years? Why, just when Palin was showing major strides in their polls...not only in the primary polls but also in the head to head with Obama, all of a sudden, the very next month, she starts to tank and tank big? According to them she also tanks in red states against Obama...as if she could lose South Dakota or South Carolina to Obama or only beat him by one point in Texas. I know Palin's fall in the polls helps the case for your guy but c'mon...it doesn't make any sense.

jerseyrepublican

Anonymous said...

Corep, his endorsement of Christine O'Donnell was bald faced pandering to the tea party. It was completely unnecessary as well because she had already won the nomination and wasn't going to win the general. Romney's endorsement served absolutely no purpose, except to pander to the tea party.

He was for universal coverage and insurance mandates in MA. He won't apologize for those decisions (and I don't think he should). But now, he is the most vocal about repealing Obamacare (a repeal effort which I hope is successful), and has rewritten his book to cover his butt. This is just more pandering to the far right.

He was for a McCainesque immigration policy in 2008. Then, after Arizona passed SB1070, he has become a hardliner on anti immigration.

If I were Matt MWS I could go on and on. But I like Romney as a man and have not kept a set of knives sharpened waiting to eviscerate him over any little thing. So I will stop here, even though there are many more things that could be said on the subject.

I know that I am offending a lot of long time friends with whom I have supported Romney in the past. It does not give me joy to do so.

I wish that Romney supporters would take their blinders off, just like I wish that Palin supporters and Huck supporters would take off their blinders. All three of those candidates have serious problems and would likely prove to be no more than a small speed bump standing in the way of an Obama reelection.

DanL

hamaca said...

Dan--so that was the comment that got you banned--amazing, hilarious. And here I was sure it must have been a snarky comment about Palin (emotions were strong at the point just after the shootings and accusations).

Regarding whether Romney supporters agree or disagree with your thoughts, everything you mentioned and more will be used against him in the primary and general if he gets that far--Huck and Palin have their baggage as well that will be used.

I have to wonder whether a lot of this baggage is so visible because these three have actually been through the ringer of national campaigns where the good, the bad, and the ugly get exposed big time. Certainly they own their decisions.

Most of the other prospective candidates, on the other hand, have not been through the national media vetting process, nor that of opposing campaigns on a national level. What warts will come out, what decisions will they make, what missteps will they take that will haunt them? There are so many damned if you do, damned if you don't situations that will be exploited in the debates and in interviews.

No way anyone makes it through the gauntlet unscathed. I'm looking forward to seeing them all try.

Ellie said...

banning at R12 can be worn as a badge of honor!

Anonymous said...

hamaca, I agree that there are no perfect candidates. That is why I was a staunch supporter of Romney, admittedly off and on though, despite him having taken positions that have bothered me a lot.

I agree with all the Romney supporters that he is an amazing business man, a wonderful father and husband, a fine community member, and a very intelligent man. I just diverge with them when it comes to him as a candidate and a potential president.

And I have been paying attention to Romney for a long time, all the way back to the Olympics. I was living in Salt Lake at the time.

DanL

Anonymous said...

Ellie, too funny.

DanL