Sunday, January 30, 2011

Why is the 2012 Presidential race largely in shadows?

The Boston Globe ran an interesting piece today as to why they think candidates are holding back on committing to a 2012 run. The following are some highlights from the article:
Potential candidates are hoarding money and gauging the shifting winds of Tea Party activists and a Democratic incumbent whose popularity has risen. Formal campaigning has yet to begin, and major candidates are hinting that they won’t announce anything — if they have anything to announce — until the first crocus buds appear in the Granite State.

...........By this time four years ago, at least 11 Republicans and nine Democrats had made formal plans to run for president. Of the Republicans, everyone except Fred Thompson had formed a campaign committee, which allows candidates to begin raising money and is typically the first step of a candidacy.

...........“One of the big lessons from 2008 was these guys tripping over themselves in early January, burning through all the money, and giving the Republican Party fatigue by summer,’’ said Scott Reed, a Republican consultant who managed Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign. “I don’t think that’s going to happen this cycle. This is going to be more of a sprint than a marathon.’’  
I think also that many of the 2012er's have important decisions to make:

1. Do I really think I can win the primary THEN the general election? That's a very complicated question. Especially if you're in a lucrative position now that you will have to give up.
2. If you're an unknown, are there just to many NAMES (frontrunners) for you to make any real in roads towards the nomination.
3. Lastly, Can I RAISE THE MONEY?

According to the article, part of this hold up could be about the MONEY.
.........Analysts say fund-raising rules encourage potential candidates like Romney to wait longer before formally campaigning. Before forming a presidential fund-raising committee, which has an individual contribution limit of $2,400 per election, a prospective candidate can use a federal political action committee, which has a $5,000 individual contribution limit and fewer disclosure requirements.

They can also use state political action committees, some of which have unlimited contribution limits. Romney, for example, last year raised a combined $2 million from five state-level PACs —Alabama, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, and South Carolina — according to the National Institute on Money in State Politics. Outside watchdogs have questioned such practices, but there have been no crackdowns from the Federal Election Commission....... 
The ability to raise LARGE SUMS of money has to be at the top of the list for any potential candidate. You need lots of money to buy air time. In this day and age where TV is the main source of information for everyone other than political junkies, you can't afford to neglect this source and expect a successful outcome.
To read the full article, go HERE.


Anonymous said...

It's clear that Romney is getting all the pieces in place before he announces.

He is by far the most prepared with FUND RAISING and ORGANIZATION.

BTW, Great post!


kelly said...

Great article.

I agree that Romney is the most prepared. Huckabee has kept up on the poll results. Not so much in the Organization and fund raising.

I still believe there is a good chance, Huckabee may not run this time. He has a lot to give up if he does.

phil said...

Organization & Funding. two very important aspects of winning the Presidency that many candidates and their supporters overlook. Huckabee overlooked in in 08. He has the same problems today.

Anonymous said...

I just can't believe there are this many people considering it.

Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee, Thune, Cain, Barbour, Daniels, Perry, Bachman, Huntsman, Rudy, Pataki, Johnson, Bolton, DeMint, and Santorum. Did I miss someone. (Please don't say Trump.)

That's 18! And some of the biggest GOP stars are not even in my list - Christie, Jeb, and Jindal.

I'm just glad Romney is in, and shining the brightest.


BOSMAN said...


That's why I don't believe 75% of those being talked about are serious.

If they are, it speaks volumes about their judgement

ConMan said...

Romney is ready to rumble!

Anonymous said...

Bosman, I agree.


hamaca said...

Becoming President is often more than a one-step process. A number of the 75% could simply be preparing for a future run by going through a campaign now--getting their feet wet.

Nothing wrong with that.

Ann said...

Romney is way ahead of the game!