Tuesday, January 11, 2011

PPP: Obama beats all comers in New Jersey

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been getting a lot of press forhis no-nonsense style in taking on political opponents and his state’s budget woes since taking office almost a year ago. But the Democratic lean of the Garden State means his admirers are probably more numerous outside its borders than within. In this climate, his 48-45 job approval margin puts him above the median of American governors, but he is still not as popular as President Obama in the state.
Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:

Mitt Romney 35/41/24
Sarah Palin 27/65/8
Mike Huckabee 32/41/28
Newt Gingrich 29/49/21
Chris Christie* 48/45/7

Head-To-Head (Obama/Candidate/Undecided):

Mitt Romney 52/37/10 (-15)
Sarah Palin 59/29/11 (-30)
Mike Huckabee 53/36/11 (-17)
Newt Gingrich 54/37/10 (-17)
Chris Christie* 55/38/7 (-17)

* Current Governor of NJ

PPP surveyed 520 New Jersey voters from January 6th to 9th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Full Story HERE.

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6 comments:

TexasConservative said...

What I found most interesting about this poll, was that it really did not matter by much who the Republican nominee was.

So much for the meme that only a certain candidate can win in this blue state.

The aim is for the states we lost to Obama in 2008 and the purple states that we can flip red.

The blue states will remain blue.

Anonymous said...

PPP new blog:

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Huckabee strong in Iowa

If Mike Huckabee decides to run for President again in 2012 he'll start out the same place in Iowa where he finished in 2008- first place. Huckabee leads there with 30% to 18% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Sarah Palin, 13% for Newt Gingrich, 6% for Ron Paul, 4% for Tim Pawlenty, 3% for John Thune, and 1% for Mitch Daniels.

The key to Huckabee's success is the ability to unite the disparate ideological factions of the Republican Party. 31% of voters think the party's too liberal and with them Huckabee has a 26-21 lead over Gingrich, with Palin a little surprisingly coming in further back at 16%. 48% are comfortable with where the party is ideologically and they go for Huckabee too, by a 33-23 margin over Romney. Huckabee comes in a close second behind Romney with the small group of voters who think the party's too conservative, 27-23.

In addition to coming out first on the first choice question, Huckabee would also seem to have the most room to grow his support in Iowa. 19% say he's their second choice to 13% for Palin, 12% for Gingrich, and just 9% for Romney. If any of the other first tier candidates were to end up not running Huckabee would be the beneficiary. Among Gingrich voters he's the second choice by a 31-14 margin over Romney. Among Palin voters he's the second choice by a 42-18 margin over Gingrich. And among Romney voters he's the second choice by a 29-19 margin over Gingrich. The big winner if Huckabee doesn't end up making the race would be Palin- she's the second choice of 26% of his voters followed by 16% for Romney.

Huckabee's the obvious winner in this poll. The two folks who probably have the most room for concern at this point are Romney and Palin. Romney's running seven points behind his level of support from 2008 and appears to have little room for growing his support. He has to find a way to deal with a Republican Party that ideologically is moving away from him- for instance with voters who consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party he is in a tie for fourth at 9% with Ron Paul, well behind the rest of the crew. He has to make himself more appealing to that new breed of activists.

For Palin the big question- here and elsewhere- is who's going to decide to support you later who doesn't already support you now? She has near complete name recognition and most people have strong feelings about her already one way or the other that she doesn't seem likely to change. Her key to success in Iowa may be for Huckabee not to run.

We also took a look at the favorability ratings of a number of currently lesser known Republican candidates in Iowa and we'll discuss that in a separate post.

Full results at PublicPolicyPolling.com

BOSMAN said...

I think the hope for NJ is that we have a nominee who can keep it fairly close.

Every vote counts in the Popular vote tally.

Granny T said...

I noticed that Huckabee is within the MOE of Romney in the head to head against Obama and favorables. So, the polling here shows us much the same as other polls - Romney and Huckabee are the front runners once again.

Anonymous said...

It's hard to believe that the state who gave us Chris Christie finds Obama so acceptable.

zeke

Anonymous said...

"Every vote counts in the Popular vote tally." My head is spinning. I thought we were told that a certain guy was to put together 270 points. What does Popular vote have to do with electing an American President. Just ask President Gore.


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