Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Christie Casts Huge Shadow over Obama/GOP - Zogby

Outspoken NJ Governor Chris Christie leads a new Zogby International 2012 Presidential Election poll, beating President Obama and besting all potential GOP rivals for the party’s nomination. The poll also reveals strong support for former MA Governor Mitt Romney with the key voting blocks of Seniors, Independents and Republican Moderates. Political –Celebrity Sarah Palin continues to struggle in attracting Independents and other non-Conservative voters.

(Click highlighted title for full story)

Republican Nomination
1.      Chris Christie -- 27%
2.      Mitt Romney  -- 17%
3.      Sarah Palin  -- 16%
4.      Mike Huckabee  --14%
5.      Mitch Daniels  --  5%
6.      Tim Pawlenty  --  2%
7.      John Thune   -- 2%
 *    Not sure/Other   -- 18%

General Election Results:

·  Chris Christie 43%
·  Barack Obama 40%

·  Mitt Romney 41%
·  Barack Obama 41%

·  Barack Obama 42%
·  Mike Huckabee 39%

·  Barack Obama 41%
·  Tim Pawlenty 38%

·  Barack Obama 40%
·  Mitch Daniels 36%

·  Barack Obama 42%
·  John Thune 35%

·  Barack Obama 45%
·  Sarah Palin 38%

The Zogby article did not release full results or cross tabs, perhaps they will be available a later date. However they did reveal the following information in their analysis (Emphasis mine):

The poll, conducted from Dec. 30, 2010 to Jan. 3, 2011, shows Christie leads among conservative Republicans with 28%, followed by Palin (18%), Huckabee (15%) and Romney (14%). Christie also leads among Born-Again Christians with 27%. He also does well with moderate Republicans (23%). Romney leads that group with 28%.” 

Both Christie and Romney lead Obama among independent voters. For Christie, that margin is 42%-29%; and for Romney, 39%-31%. Of the listed Republicans, Palin does the worst against Obama among independents, losing 38%-32%.

Obama loses to each of the Republicans among voters over age 65; and trails by the biggest margins to Romney (51%-38%) and Christie (49%-39%).

Pollster John Zogby: "Christie's blunt talk about public employees and his aggressive actions on the New Jersey state budget have made him very popular both within the Republican Party and with independents.  His style and appearance would present quite the contrast to that of the President.  He adds not only an alternative governing philosophy, but also real efforts at cutting spending. If he decided to run, Christie could quickly oust Romney as the favorite of establishment Republicans. Our results are not good news for Palin. She isn't winning independents, and despite her star power with conservatives, she is not their first choice to take on Obama."

(The interactive poll of 2,073 likely voters has a margin of error of +/-2.2%.  The subset of 746 Republican likely voters has a margin of error of +/-3.7%. )

Polls this early are suspect and interactive polls even more so, but the numbers are consistent with recent polling showing Romney, Palin and Huckabee all clustered together. Of note is the omission of potential candidate Newt Gingrich. Perhaps Zogby wanted to bolster the “Draft Christie” movement and decided to narrow the field.

Some take away points, as I see it:

Christie’s and Not Sure/Other shares equal 45% - not good for any of the other named candidates, top or bottom tier.

Christie has stated numerous times he is not running and it’s doubtful a poll, no matter how favorable, will change his mind. His numbers show however, people are not adverse to hearing tough news or solutions, if they believe it will solve a problem. That should be a cue for the 2012 field to let it rip.

Romney continues to demonstrate strength against Obama and with key voting blocks. This is an understated and underestimated resource, since seniors, Indies and Moderates have a strong effect not only in General Elections but in primaries as well.

Palin would no doubt be a strong competitor in the GOP Primary, but as some people say Romney’s support is a “mile wide and an inch deep” – Palin’s may very well be the exact opposite: “a mile deep and inch wide.”

Perhaps the biggest queston is, if Christie wasn't featured in the poll, how do you think the results would look?

Let the conversation begin…..


Right Wingnut said...

There's a lot wrong with this poll. It's not even worth delving in to it.

Anonymous said...

Christie's biggest problem for a future in national politics is the state he is from and trust me...I know. For every high profile, complimentary article that is released about him in conservative circles...there is a Democrat-leaning article or local news program that questions his policies. For Christie to have a future in national politics, he will need to win re-election as Governor and if the Democrats put up a good enough candidate...he could very easily lose.


Michael said...

I would agree with JR as to him needing to win re-election first.

As much as I like Christie, I believe his popularity is more a a novelty. He is a showman and knows how to use interviews to his favor.

I'll bet all the "Dirty Harry" fans love Christie as well.

Anonymous said...

The worst thing that could happen to him is for him to lose his reelection bid and that could happen. BUT, what other options does he have...he has already stated that he's not running for President this time and he has also stated that he will not accept a VP position.


Anonymous said...

I agree JR, I think Christie is not into throwing BS. Especially around his intentions.

He's very young and will surely be a name in the future as well.

Now, for jr's scorn:

I fully expect Christie to endorse his good friend Mitt Romney in 2012. You know, the guy that raised money and campaigned with him several times. All when polls said he had NO CHANCE of winning.


Anonymous said...

zeke, you're right he probably will back Romney and no offense but what's your point? This post isn't about who Christie will back in 2012.


Anonymous said...

JR, This is a presidential poll, and if Christie throws the weight of his support behind Romney and you add up all those numbers, it could be VERY significant.

Glad to see familiar faces here.


Anonymous said...

Zaloom, why would it be significant...they pull from the same voters...at best it's a wash.


Right Wingnut said...

Very few people know much about Christie aside from his You Tube rants. He polls very well among the Tea Party crowd (thanks partially to Glenn Beck). I suspect many would sour on him once they learned of some of his moderate postions on certain things. I'm not knocking him, just trying to be realistic with a poll two years out.

Who in their right mind would include Christie, but not Gingrich in a 2012 poll? It makes you wonder if Zogby was trying to push a narrative.

I don't think Zogby ever releases internals. In my mind, that renders the results useless.

Anonymous said...

And today's shiney object of the day is....
Chris Christy! Congratulations Chris! In a week or so you'll replaced by someother person the press and some in the GOP is qualified to be president.

BOSMAN said...


"I fully expect Christie to endorse his good friend Mitt Romney in 2012. You know, the guy that raised money and campaigned with him several times. All when polls said he had NO CHANCE of winning."



Excellent "Point" zeke