10. Jim DeMint:
9. Mike Pence:
8. Mitch Daniels:
7. John Thune:
6. Haley Barbour:
5. Mike Huckabee:
4. Tim Pawlenty:
3. Newt Gingrich: One well-connected Iowa operative was recently detailing the massive amounts of time -- and money -- that the former House Speaker had spent in the Hawkeye State over the last two years. That got us to thinking about the possibility that we have been underestimating Gingrich in our 2012 calculations. What he has: name identification, the ability to raise money and more policy proposals than Antoine Dodson has You Tube hits. (And you said we couldn't get an Antoine Dodson reference into the Fix!) What he doesn't: a demonstrated ability to stay on message day after day in the cauldron of a presidential race. Still, if Gingrich runs, and he sounds like he is going to, he is a major force. (Previous ranking: 6)
2. Sarah Palin: Palin has begun to break out of her Twitter/Facebook cocoon to interact with the mainstream media of late. Basic political analysis would suggest that Palin's newfound love -- ok, that may be too strong a word -- for the press means that she is trying to re-shape her public image in advance of a run for president. But, as we have written many times, basic political analysis doesn't often apply to Palin. it's just as likely that this media tour is the result of a snap decision made by Palin and her top/only political adviser (aka First Dude Todd Palin). Who knows? What we do know is that Palin is the only person on the Line who could get 10,000 people to show up and see her next weekend in Iowa. And that's worth something. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Mitt Romney: Romney's op-ed in opposition to the tax compromise proved that the former Massachusetts governor is deserving of our top spot. He effectively positioned himself in opposition to not just Obama but also congressional Republicans -- a very good place to be given the anti-establishment sentiment among the GOP electorate these days. Romney has, by far, the most advanced political organization of anyone in the field and his ability to self-fund gives him a leg up financially over his potential competitors. Romney's weaknesses -- his difficulty in connecting on the stump, his Mormonism, his flip-flops on social issues -- are well known and real. But, Romney seems a more measured and mature candidate than he was in 2008. Whether that resonates with primary and caucus voters remains to be seen. (Previous ranking: 1)
10 comments:
Even though Barak Obama jumped directly from the Senate to the White House, that jump is not typical. Prior to 2008, I think John Kennedy was the last president to have made that jump. The jump from the House to the White House hasn't been done in over a hundred years. While John Thune has the kind of personality that makes that jump seem credible, I'd be surprised if anyone without experience as a governor were nominated. That eliminates Jim DeMint, Mike Pence, and John Thune.
I never saw Haley Barbour as an effective leader of the RNC back in the 90's. The mood of the country doesn't seem right for a guy who has a bit of the good ol' boy personality. He will remind too many people of what they didn't like about George W. Bush and Sarah Palin. I would drop him further.
Tim Pawlenty seemed weak during the recount that led to Al Franken winning the Minnesota Senate seat. He seems likeable but not necessarily charismatic. He seems to be regarded as more moderate, and moderation may not help him in the primary.
Sarah Palin has taken so many hits from the media that I have a hard time seeing her winning. Republicans may rally around someone else rather than nominate her for what they will see as a certain loss. She may not want to run anyway. Being a "what if" can often be more powerful than being an "also ran."
Newt Gingrich still seems to be more of a professor than an executive. I agree that he is a "major force," but he will have a tough road to the nomination.
Mitch Daniels doesn't seem to have the right stuff for a national campaign. His talking about a truce on social issues to get our economic house in order seems to be wise policy but will not play well with the folks who vote in primaries. On the other hand, a non-nonsense governor may appeal to the people next time.
Mike Huckabee has a following of his own, and he will pick up people who want anyone but Mitt Romney. He should win Iowa again, and he'll do well in some of the southern primaries. His TV show makes him seem likable but not presidential. Likable might be enough right now. At this point in the race, he's one of the two most likely to be nominated.
Mitt Romney has the right resume and has done the right things over the past decade. He will be accused of "flip-flops," but Mike Huckabee's cap and trade video will mean that both front-runners live in glass houses on that accusation. The Mormon issue will continue to be a problem for some people.
anon,
You conveniently didn't mention RomneyCare. That's much bigger than the "Mormon problem."
By the way, who are you?
anon,
“Sarah Palin has taken so many hits from the media that I have a hard time seeing her winning.”
So . . . We should let the left biased media pick the GOP nominee?
How’d that work out last time?
Cillizza has Mitt as #1 based on his op-ed in opposition to the tax compromise. I think it was a good op-ed. But he wasn’t the first. He wasn’t leading. At least DeMint and Palin came out against it long before. Cillizza failed to mention that. I smell bias.
It is hard for the establishment candidate to be anti-establishment. It might be that Mitt doesn't want to be the establishment pick, but they do appear to be picking him. Somebody has to be their, “Anybody but Palin” candidate.
"So . . . We should let the left biased media pick the GOP nominee?
How’d that work out last time?" Bingo, it never ceases to amaze me that the party establishment wants the Left Wing media to dictate what we should do. They fail to see that we cannot get out of our financial funk this way.
OHIO JOE
Cillizza has the first 2 right! Pawlenty in 4th is a bit strange.
zeke
Go Mitt!
OJ,
""So . . . We should let the left biased media pick the GOP nominee?
How’d that work out last time?"
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No, we should let the Kool-aid sippers choose instead. Have some more Palin-aid.
Cillizza is correct in his assessment. Romney is in the Top position.
Romney is number 1 in my book as well.
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