Monday, December 6, 2010

PPP: Romney's Woes Continue In Missouri Poll (12-6-2010)


While Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee continue their strong polling in the latest release by Public Policy Polling, Mitt Romney appears to in the midst of a meltdown. In what appears to be a pattern in red/purple states, the one time front runner only garners the support of 14% of likely GOP primary voters in Missouri. Even more troubling, only 47% view him favorably. This is quite alarming given that in 2008, he captured 29% of the vote in the Missouri GOP primary. In addition, Romney has dropped 8 points in the state since March.
When it comes to the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination picture in Missouri Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin are out ahead of the pack with 27% and 25% respectively. Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are a good deal back with 15% and 14%, followed by Ron Paul at 5%, Tim Pawlenty at 3%, John Thune at 2%, and Mitch Daniels at 1%.

Only 47% of Republican primary voters in Missouri have a favorable opinion of Romney, well below the 76% who like Huckabee, 72% who like Palin, and even the 57% who see Gingrich positively. Romney's poor performance is symbolic of an emerging trend in our 2012 polling- he tends to be a lot stronger in states that Barack Obama won in 2008 than he is in ones that went for John McCain. That's a double edged sword for him- he's frequently putting up general election numbers that make him look like the the most formidable nominee the Republicans could put forward. But at the same time his path to getting that nomination looks difficult with red state Republicans much less enthusiastic about Romney than the other folks in the game.

Exit question: I'm interested in hearing from Romney supporters. What has caused Mitt's precipitous decline in the polls as of late? Is it the increased scrutiny of RomneyCare? Or, a backlash against the GOP establishment for the attacks on Palin? Perhaps it's a little of both, but it's hard to ignore the developing pattern. Something is definitely afoot.

Full Results HERE

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Neither. As in just about every other PPP poll, its the inclusion of Newt that drives down Romney's numbers. Since Newt won't get out of the starting gate, its moot.

Right Wingnut said...

Anon,

That theory makes some sense, but how do you account for his 47% favorable number among likely primary voters?

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure. What were his favorables in the last poll? His "unfavorables" aren't much worse than Palin or Gingrich in this poll, he just has the highest percentage of "not sure." Probably because he's not on TV every day.

Doug NYC GOP said...

Huck, Newt and Palin all have unarguably greater exposure thanks to Fox News and the talk radio circuit. Palin and Huck are both ut touting books and Palin has her reality/rehab show on the air.

Mitt is not a dumb guy and is taking a very deliberate low key, below the radar approach right now.

The lead in these polls is going to change several times over the next year. Besides, you don't want to peak too soon or be the Front Runner this early, so Huck and Palin need to be cautious about over exposing themselves and losing that "Presidential" mystique.

Bill589 said...

The GOP elite, the Dems, and the media hit Sarah Palin everyday. And everyday, she stands up, and stands taller and louder than anybody else against this big government progressivism. Some people tell us how they’ll lead. Sarah shows us.

Palin Kool-Aid = 1 part Commonsense + 1 part Constitutional + 1 part Conservative.

Yes. I do drink her Kool-Aid.

Anonymous said...

"The GOP elite, the Dems, and the media hit Sarah Palin everyday." Bingo and she still beats Mr. Romney. The nay-sayers can say that there are not many delegates in Montana or Missouri, but there seems to be a pattern here. The more people find out about MAcare, the more disgusted they get and they are looking for other choices despite pressure from the swells that run our party.

OHIO JOE

Illinoisguy said...

My friends, you do realize this exactly the same poll showing Mitt beating Obama by 6, and Palin getting beat by Obama by about the same amount? Reminds me of "What profiteth a man if he gains the whole earth but loses his soul". In this case, what good does it do to get the Republican nomination if you're just going to get beat in the general? We still get 4 more years of Obama. At this point, Huckabee and Romney have been been beating Obama in nearly every poll...... Sarah hasn't beat him even once. In this poll, Sarah does MUCH better than Mitt with favorables, but when running against Obama, Mitt does much better. It's the same story over and over. We like Sarah, but sure don't want her for President.

Anonymous said...

While as of now, Mrs. Palin has a more difficult time beating Mr. Obama than M & M. I am not so sure She would do so poorly when the actually election comes. After all, a year ago, we were told (by pollsters and pundits alike) that the GOP could not win the House and at best would only pick up a few Senate seats.

On the flip side I must admit that the tax deal might actually help Mr. Romney as the economy actually recovers a bit due to lower taxes. I remember in the good old Bush days, I had no trouble voting for a blood like him. Of course, I admired him for appointed good judges, defending the country and spreading democracy, but I like most middle class voters was in a good mood in part because of the great economy. Even with the restoration of the marvelous Bush tax cuts, it will be quite some time before we recover from Mr. Obama's Socialism. Hoever, the economy might be strong enough to put us in a bit of a better mood. I still will not vote for Mr. Romney in the primary (unless, my only alternative is Mr. Gingrich,) but I might be in a better mood to be willing to vote for him in the general. Although in part because of his recent rough ride, it is less likely that Mr. Romney will be our candidate as he is no longer the front-runner.


OHIO JOE

Anonymous said...

I'm pretty sure it has more to do with media exposure than anything at this time. We still have a lot of ups and downs for all of the potential candidates before we're through. My response is: Patience.

AZ

Anonymous said...

P.S. Did you see the WaPo article quoted by Article VI Blog, where the author says that Romney must drink fancy wine and Huckabee probably doesn't drink at all? Apparently, not only did that get published, but the commenters haven't said anything about Romney's not drinking. Very strange.

AZ

Doug NYC GOP said...

I laugh at OJ referring to Romney now as a "blood" - has a real LA Gang sound to it.

What is not funny, and what turns off a LOT of people to Palin, is this on going shredding of the GOP. If any one dares have a differeing opinion of Palin or on policy, they are imeadiately consigned to an Enemy Status, replete with a deragatory moniker.

Talk about making war on the grass roots, seems you are the ones with the taste of blood in your mouths, and make war on anyone who disagrees with you. Reminds me of Germany in the late 1930's, no?

Enjoy it with caution, because you may find yourselves on a very lonely road.

Anonymous said...

"Enjoy it with caution, because you may find yourselves on a very lonely road." Haha, it is not my camp that is just barely in double digits in MO & MT. BTW, it was in deed the party elite who first delcared war on the middle class and on the grass root. If we have a taste for blood, there is a reason. Furthermore, I would have no trouble supporting Mr. Pawlenty or Mr. Pence for example so the Germany of the 1930s is a gross misrepresentation of history. Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Romney and their camp members made their bed, but now they do not want to lay there. We shall find out how long this silliness can last.

OHIO JOE.

Doug NYC GOP said...

The silliness will last only as long as you keep posting.

I'd also like you to back up your claim:
"The more people find out about MAcare, the more disgusted"

Do you have any direct polling data to support this, or are you just pulling this out of your a...ear?

Illinoisguy said...

OJ, I've been very close to this political scene for the last 3.75 years, and I have no idea what you are talking about when it come to Romney and his camp members making their bed blah blah blah. What has Romney done regarding whatever it is you're referring to?

Anonymous said...

"Do you have any direct polling data to support this," Gee, is it not a good guess? Hey, I cannot prove exactly what it is that is pulling his numbers down, but something must be. The majority of Americans (especially Republicans and GOP leaning Independent) do not like mandates. Yeah, I suppose it could be some other sort of non sense that is pulling down his numbers, but for the Life of me, I certainly cannot see how MAcare is helping him.

IG, you can pretent all you want that the Romneyites are not 'making their bed,' but that does not change the fact that he indirectly helped give us ObamaCare and TARP (which a banker admitted to me the other day did not help consumer confidence.) His camp is simply out of touch with what many grass roots members and Tea Partiers want and there is no indicating of this changing and their is not even any indication of compromise.

To be blunt, it almost seems that the difference between the Obamaites and the Romneyites is that at least the Romneyites have the self disipline not to throw an ax at the TV when Miss. Palin proves she can dance.


OHIO JOE

Illinoisguy said...

OJ, I've seen some polls that show Mitt Romney has more support amongst tea partiers than any other 'so called' Tea party candidate. The media hypes Palin 24/7 as being the tea party candidate, but do you realize that they publicized yesterday that they were sending her a letter asking her to be the new national GOP party chairman? She shot it down immediately teling them she was not interested. Did you even notice how LITTLE publicity that got from Fox or any other network? Kinda suspicious, right, considering how big that news really is of who they want for president.

Now, one more little thing: During the terrible 'free fall' of Mitt Romney's as PPP calls it, guess who has the highest overall average of all GOP PPP polls starting with the 18 they conducted just before election day? NOPE, you're wrong! MITT ROMNEY is the right answer. I've got it all on spread sheet my friend, and will share it more explicitly once I get to add Massachusetts and maybe Michigan, which will put him back in front on nearly every single sub category. What a way to free fall!!!!! Don't you just love it??

Illinoisguy said...

Here is more of Mitt's 'woe's' coming out:

Massachusetts GOP primary poll:
Romney 47
Palin 12
Gingrich 11
Huckabee 10

Must be nice to have this kind of bad week.

Anonymous said...

IG, no offense but you shouldn't brag too much about Romney's placement in these polls. Some of the ones he has won...he has no chance at winning in the General. Some of the other states that he lost could end up with some disenfranchised Republican voters come election day and they just might not show up. The base just is not that fond of the man and it's starting to become pretty evident. I know that probably bothers you since you are a social conservative but it seems to becoming more and more of a truism. I know how you feel...I am more of a moderate and I don't understand how people, who share my views, don't like Palin.

JR

illinoisguy said...

I have seen no evidence that people don't like Palin. Liking someone and thinking they are the best person to be our next president is two very different things. That's what poll after poll after poll continues to tell us.....GOP/Conservatives like her......BUT they don't want her as President....It's a very clear picture.