Saturday, December 11, 2010

Graph Weighted by Delegates PPP Polls - 27 States

Here are the same PPP polls graphically depicted and weighted by delegates per state. The results look much like the unweighted version, but Mitt does not lead in the 30-45 year old bracket nor with the Conservative group.


phil said...


Is it safe to say that the fact that Romney leads with both Men & Woman according to your graph, that he still leads overall with weighted delegates?


illinoisguy said...

Phil, yes, if you look at the leftmost data point, it is labeled as overall.

phil said...

Thank you IG. I'm not very good at reading graphs of data. Your graphs however are easy to read and understand.

Bill589 said...

I was thinking it looks like Palin is doing best.

Wait. . . . Is this a metric poll?

illinoisguy said...

I have no idea what a metric poll didn't help with it either.

On the overall, Palin is doing 2nd best. Unlike most little charts, a lot of work has gone into this. I would guess that rightspeak and rightosphere are the only sites that have this posted, because I only submitted to those two sites.

kelly said...

I'm happy that Romney still leads. You don't hear this mentioned in the media

Anonymous said...

I like how the graph shows that as a person ages / matures, they are more likely to choose Romney. Whereas with Palin it is the reverse. Palin leads in the, as Rush puts it, the "skull full of mush" crowd.


BOSMAN said...

Another great analysis IG.

For those unfamiliar with which 27 states are being analyzed, here is the list:

South Carolina
New Hampshire
West Virginia
North Carolina

Anonymous said...

Right now, I'd say that Mike Huckabee has the best shot at winning Louisiana. Most people that I know around here who are active in GOP politics and have expressed an opinion are supporting him.

At the caucus in 2008, there was a big group of openly McCain supporters who seemed to be made up of party insiders. Another big group was called something like "Life and Family Values," and they ended up going with the McCain supporters. The supporters for Mr. Romney were a smaller number, and the Ron Paul supporters were a little less than we were.

Very few people were openly unfriendly, but the "Life and Family Values" people seemed to be more of the anti-Mormon crowd. The Ron Paul supporters seemed to be friendliest to the Mitt Romney supporters.

I'm just guessing, but I suspect that in 2012 the "Life and Family Values" people will go with Mike Huckabee and will continue to have a very strong showing. The party insiders will split among several candidates, and Mr. Romney may pick up many of them. If Ron Paul runs, his people will stay with him. If he doesn't, many of his people won't bother with the caucus. We may get the rest. If Sarah Palin runs, she'll attract caucus voters who didn't vote last time and may split a little of each group. The caucus selects delegates to a state convention where delegates to the national convention are selected. The state convention becomes something of a "winner take all" event, but if things change in the month or so between the caucus and the convention, people can change their minds.