Friday, November 12, 2010

Is Mitt Romney Really the Front Runner for 2012? You Decide!

Ray Gustini of The Atlantic has a nice article up, with a current assessment of Mitt Romney’s standing in the 2012 Presidential race. No final opinion is drawn, it’s left to the reader to decide and to spark conversation, but it raises a good question and provides excellent source material.

Here is the start of Mr. Gustini’s article:

"The beneficiaries of last week's Republican tsunami haven't even been sworn in yet, but attention has already turned to 2012, where Mitt Romney has emerged as the early front-runner to secure the party's presidential nomination. It's a familiar position for the former Massachusetts governor, one he hopes turns out better than it did in 2008, when he was unable to win over skeptical GOP voters despite boasting an impressive resume and significant fundraising edge over his rivals."

"Have things really changed for Romney, who currently tops National Journal's presidential power rankings and enjoys a 27 point lead over nearest rival Mike Huckabee in the latest Public Policy poll of New Hampshire voters?"

Read the entire article here. (Lots of material for posts for any ambitious authors.)

On a separate note, a new and extensive Pew Poll has lots of data in their Mid-Term Election poll. It addresses who turned out, the Tea Party effect, campaign tactics and the 2012 campaign. Among the nuggets mined regarding 2012 are:

The GOP continues to be seen as a leaderless party: 51% say they don’t know who leads the Republican Party while 14% volunteer that no one does.  More now see John Boehner as the leader of the GOP (10%) than did so in September (4%).

Regardintg the race for the GOP Nomination in 2012, Pew found there is no clear front-runner for the 2012 Republican nomination for president: Sarah Palin (15%), Mike Huckabee (15%), and Mitt Romney (13%) all receive about the same levels of support. See the chart below for the full details. while numbers overall are somewhat lower than other national polls, the ranking order of the potential candidates is basically the same. The lead is currently shared by Palin, Huckabee and Romney, while the remaining field trails.

It’s also interesting to note, that among those who support the efforts of the Tea Party, the media anointed leader Sarah Palin, ranks third, behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, albeit with all three statistically tied. Both Huckabee and Romney have not been as identified with the Tea Party movement as prominently as Palin. There ranking here suggests the TP is far more splintered and pragmatic, than the media template suggests.

Full Pew Poll results here.


Anonymous said...

Great article as always Doug.

There are no clear front runners at this point in time. One will emerge though from Romney, Huckabee, or Palin.


carlo said...

I agree it's a little to early to declare a winner until you look at the early states:

Iowa: Huckabee/Romney/Palin
Wyoming: Romney
NH: Romney
NV: Romney
SC: Gingrich/Romney/Huckabee/Palin
Florida: Romney
Michigan: Romney

kelly said...

I think Romney's the front runner closely followed by Huckabee. Palin has 1 good day of polling, right after a mid-term media blitz where she managed to get her face in the news even more than normal, if that's possible. Lets see how she does over the next couple of polling cycles.

BOSMAN said...

I've decided Doug, ROMNEY!
I set of polling data out of several others will not convince me that Palin is on the rise.