Hi All,
MSNBC's First Read had an interesting piece a few days ago, looking ata " first read " on the states in play for 2012. Notwithstanding their liberal persuasions, I thought the analysis was spot on.
First read proposes a Solid or Likely Democratic base of 169 electoral votes reflecting 13 states : Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Washington and Oregon.
They suggest an equivalent base for the GOP of 21 states that are Solid or Likely including : Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia,Wyoming, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska ( 4 ), No. Dakota, So. Carolina, So. Dakota and Texas
Now, we are all free to argue what GOP candidate could win these states by a larger margin and / or who would " lose " a Dem state by a smaller margin. But, all in all, this is a pretty good assessment of the starting blocks for President Obama and any GOP candidate. This leaves a Battleground mix of 17 states where the election will be won or lost in 2012. First Read breaks these into three blocks;
LEAN DEM (66 ) : Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), Pennsylvania.(20)LEAN GOP ( 29 ) : Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska ( 1 ) North Carolina ( 15 )
TOSS - UP (94) : Colorado (9),Florida (29), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (18 ), Virginia ( 13 ), Wisconsin ( 10 ).
Considering the four likely GOP candidates for the 2012 nomination ; i.e., Romney, Palin, Huckabee and Gingrich, it is interesting, in light of last Tuesday's elections, to see which of these four candidates would be the strongest GOP candidate against Obama in each particular state and who would thus be most likely to carry that state in the general election. The answer aill obviously point to the strongest GOP candidate for 2012 and the candidate most likely to be President in 2013. Of course, the answer could be President Obama ....but lets see. here's my assessment:
Iowa: New GOP Governor is likely Romney supporter, Declining dollar could help farm exports in 2011 and ObamaPennsylvania: GOP Governor and Senator can motivate GOTV to offset Philadelphia, but Pennsylvania is still a centrist state
Montana : ADVANTAGE: ROMNEY and PALIN
Nebraska : ADVANTAGE ROMNEY, HUCKABEE, PALIN and GINGRICH
North Carolina : ADVANTAGE: HUCKABEE
Colorado : Recent GOP debacle with Buck and Tancredo/ Maes indicates turmoil breeds political trauma. If GOP can get its act togetner, it can off-set Boulder County and win. ADVANTAGE: ROMNEY
Florida : New GOP Governor and popular Senator Rubio on ticket offsets 2008 loss of 3 %. Romney came in strong second in 2008 primaries and is running strong again ADVANTAGE: ROMNEY
Nevada: Angle debacle and Reid's negative visibility combined with strong LDS voting bloc and ongoing economic miasma
New Mexico: New GOP Governor could put state over the top for GOP ADVANTAGE : ROMNEY, PALIN
Ohio : Kasich running the state makes a huge difference although industrial economy in north coninues to suffer as downstate agricultural economy improves
In summary, ROMNEY provides a strong liklihood that the necessary majority of these 17 battleground states can be won by the GOP in 2012. In addition , ROMNEY is the only GOP candidate who has a remote prayer of peeling off one or two of the 6 " Likely Dem " states like Connecticut, Maine, Washington and Oregon. All of these states show that a moderate , centrist GOP candidate can appeal to enough Independents to be competitive in 2012. Look at the Governor's race in Connecticut ( Still too close to call ), the first GOP Governor in Maine ( a Romney endorsement ), the GOP win in Illinois and the razor close loss of the Governorship, the Rossi-Murray sqeaker in Washington State and the Governor's race in Oregon. All of these show states where a centrist, moderate GOP presidential candidate like Romney could win............if winning in 2012 is one's objective. Perhaps, losing and being on the right side is more important. In that case, any candidate can run and lose.
Anyway, that's my morning commentary. Have at itCraigS
4 comments:
Great Analysis craig,
I think I can hear the fat lady singing already! And no, the first initial in her last name is not 'H'.
You are Da Man!
Thanks for putting this together. It appears that based on the need to attract centrists and independents as well as conservatives, Romney at this point is the one
It looks like Obama is in big trouble. I'm glad the Romney seems to do the best. He seems to be pretty smart. Right now, I'm leaning toward him.
Your theories make a lot of sense.
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