Thursday, November 11, 2010

Conglomerate PPP polling - Updated

Nearly every week we get new PPP polls from one or more states. But, even the best of us with numbers can't tabulate in our heads the conglomerate results. I have taken all of the PPP polls that have been conducted since Gingrich has been included. I extracted earlier versions of states that have been polled more than once during that time, saving only the latest of those states. There are eighteen states included in this study. I will show categories as follows: Overall, each of the age categories, Conservative, Men, and Women. I will show them both not only as a simple average, but also as a weighted average using the state delegates as the means by which I weight them. A couple things must be noted: For some reason PPP didn't show us the age breakdown on some of the states, so those states will only include states for which the data was given.
Overall Average------------------------Overall Weighted Average
Romney 21.94--------------------------------21.48
Gingrich 17.44--------------------------------18.13
Huckabee 17.11-------------------------------17.08
Palin 16.44------------------------------------17.2
All others are either undecided or support someone else

In order to shorten this posting a little, let me just summarize the age division breakdown as follows:

Palin was best with the 18-29 year olds by a pretty large margin, then Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich

For 30-45 year olds Romney had the best average and highest weighted average, then Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin

In the 46-65 year old group, Romney lead both averages, then Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin

In the over 65 division, Romney lead both averages by a large margin, then Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee
Conservative Average Conservative Weighted Average
Romney---- 21.0-----------------------------------21.53
Gingrich---- 20.0------------------- ---------------20.04
Palin--------- 17.89--------------------------------19.24
Huckabee--- 17.5---------------------------------- 17.53
(OUCH!!!! Huckabee Dead Last still of top FOUR)
All others are undecided or someone else
Women Averages------------------------- Women Weighted Average
Romney --- 22.33----------------------------------21.68
Huckabee-- 19.06----------------------------------19.27
Palin--------- 16.17--------------------------------16.7
Gingrich----- 15.06------------------------------- 15.43
All others are undecided or support someone else at this time
Men Average------------------------------Men Weighted Average
Romney -----21.61----------------------------------21.13
Gingrich------19.67-------------------------------- 20.43
Palin---------- 16.61-------------------------------- 17.52
Huckabee--- 15.5------------------------------------ 15.19
(Pretty weak with the men Huck!)
All others are undecided or support someone else.
The MOE on this much data would be very, very small. So, for these particular states, this is pretty much the story thus far. By the way the states involved in all except the age breakdown are: KY, CO, IA, SC, LA, NV, FL, PA, IL, AK, TX, NH, ME, CA, MI, WV. and CT

One thing I noticed about the last 6 states' data is that there are a lot more undecided and for someone not listed than there had been in previous polls. They dropped Ron Paul, but added several, so that should have been near a wash. I'm wondering if they asked the question any differently.
Of the 18 states, how many did each person win?
Romney: 10.5 Huckabee: 5 Gingrich: 2.5 Palin: 0
IF it were a winner take all in these states what would the delegate count be?
Romney: 548.5 Huckabee: 239 Gingrich: 211.5 Palin: 0
Note: SC treated as a tie
Have fun. I would like to hear your comments. Don't stray too far from the subject matter please.


Ann said...

Thank you for figuring this all out Illinois guy.
It looks like a lot of work went into it.

I'm glad the Mitt Romney is doing well with those 30 and above. Those immature voters, will come around, I'm sure.

Anonymous said...

First off, despite being in the opposite camp, I must say that you are rather good with numbers, IG. I am sure not if the rule and schedule are finalized but the reality is that it will not have a WTA system per se. Many delegates will be chosen by CD. So while, candidate X could end up essenially winning all delegates in a certain state, they will need to win each CD (at least in the first two month of the season.)

While we are lucky to have some data, there really is not enough data to have a good delegate estimation because there are a lot of unanswered questions. Most states have not been polled yet (or at least polled recently) so the only way we can guestimate delegate counts for those states is to compile data from regional an national polling and perhaps look at what happened last time among other things.

While PPP is not the worst polling company (though not the best either,) I think it is folly to depend on one polling company especially when most of us question how the state polling data can say one thing and national polling another (and yes part of that is due to margin of error. In short, while many polling companies give us national polls (and even a few regional polls) what we need is more polling companies polling states in order to give us a bit better of a delegate picture.

Finally, while it is impossible to enforce, consistancy would also be nice, some state polls include Dr. Paul, some not, other include Mr. Santorum or Mr. Thune, other, not. While the data gives us some big clues to be sure, many of these polls are comparing apples to oranges.


kelly said...

Thank you IG for doing this.

I usually find it hard to understand poll data. You make your findings easy to understand.

Keep up the good work. I hope to see more of you here on Right Speak.

Anonymous said...

BTW, I'd say it is even more of a three way race after the latest batch of polls, Mr. Romney probaly still leads the delegate count and Mrs. Palin is still third, but only a few per centage point separate the 3. And shhhhh, Mr. Pawlenty is slowly catching up to Dr. Paul for 5th place, haha.


Anonymous said...

It's great to see a summary of all the polls. It's even better when Romney is leading.


BOSMAN said...

Welcome IG!!!!

I'm looking forward to your posts on Right Speak.

No one that I Know, can hold a candle to you when it comes to figuring this kind of stuff out.

WELL DONE, as always.

Illinoisguy said...

By the way, Sarah moved into 2nd place in the WTA delegates.

phil said...

I'm glad it's her and not Huckabee that is getting stronger. I couldn't support Huckabee under any circumstance.

I believe Romney's numbers will improve now that things have quieted down again.

Hopefully, these PPP numbers were a fluke.

Right Wingnut said...


Looking forward to your posts, yet I'm not sure I can take on a Bosman, a Doug NYC GOP, AND an I-Guy all by my lonesome....