Hispanics are Down on This Year’s Midterms: Not Good News for Democrats

Hispanic voters appear likely to sit out this year’s midterm election in even larger numbers than usual, potentially depriving Democrats of a voting bloc that could make the difference in several tight races.

Many Latinos are angry that efforts to overhaul federal immigration policy are stalled in the Republican-led House, voters and advocates say. But they also are disappointed that President Barack Obama put off any executive action on the issue, including a potential ratcheting back of deportations, until after the election.

That disenchantment with both parties would cost Democrats more, because Hispanics vote Democratic by a wide margin. Some activists are calling on Hispanics to boycott the balloting.

In addition, the national parties and many congressional and gubernatorial candidates haven’t mounted the sort of robust Latino-outreach efforts common in presidential-election years. A growing number of Republican-backed state laws requiring potential voters to present identification for a ballot could further depress Hispanic turnout, advocates say.

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“There are a lot of headwinds facing the Latino vote right now,” said Cristóbal Alex, president of the Latino Victory Project, which seeks to nurture Hispanic leaders and donors.

Latino turnout rates typically trail those of other groups, especially in midterm years. In 2010, 31% of eligible Hispanics cast ballots, compared with nearly 49% of whites, according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

But largely because of population gains, the absolute number of Hispanic voters has steadily increased. The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials projected earlier this year that 7.8 million Hispanics would vote this year, up from 6.6 million in 2010.

Low Hispanic turnout would hurt Democratic senators in states such as Colorado and North Carolina with significant Latino populations, imperiling the party’s control of the chamber. It would also damage Democratic candidates for governor in states like Florida and Georgia. According to exit polls, Mr. Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote in 2012, and in 2010, 60% of Hispanics supported Democrats in House races.

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