Thursday, September 20, 2012
Just how accurate are all these polls? A tool for reading polls
Lets take a look at VIRGINIA.
According to Demograhic data supplied HERE for each state, Virginia is made up of:
There is a poll out today by Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News, That has Obama leading Romney in that state by 4 points (50-46).
Upon closer examination of that poll, we find that this sample was made up of:
Now it's not rocket science to compare those numbers with the State of Virginia's party demographics numbers to see that they UNDER SAMPLED Republicans BIG TIME.
Having fun yet?
Lets do another. Lets do COLORADO.
Colorado is broken down this way by party affiliation:
A Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll out today has Obama beating Romney by 1 point (48-47).
Like in Virginia above, lets look at this poll's COLORADO sample:
Do I have your interest yet?
I'm not picking on Quinnipiac...Lets spread the wealth around. Lets look at Marquette University Law School Poll of WISCONSIN. This poll has Obama leading Romney by 14 points (54-40).
Now WISCONSIN is made up of:
Now the Sample of the Wisconsin poll was made up of:
I'll stop here....You can draw your own conclusions.
Now I realize that conducting a poll is more complicated than I've made it look above. Saying that, I would hope that the NUMBER 1 GOAL of ALL POLLING COMPANIES would be to get the samples demographics as close to the states actual demographics as possible.
BTW, Bookmark this link. It has the states breakdown