Montana once again appears likely to grace the GOP with its three electoral votes, but only by a modest margin. All Republican contenders have the edge over Obama. Mitt Romney performs strongest, leading Obama 49-41 (50-39 when we last polled there in November). Michele Bachmann has the edge, 48-42; Herman Cain,Head-to-Head: (Obama/Candidate/Undecided)
46-41; Sarah Palin 48-44 (47-45); and Tim Pawlenty, 45-41. All lead by a larger marginthan McCain’s three-point victory in 2008. These larger leads can be explained in part bya more Republican electorate. Among registered voters polled in Montana, voterssupported McCain in 2008, 50-41. Obama can improve his chances in Montana if he isable to bring out his 2008 voters once again.
Mitt Romney 41/49/10 (+8)
Michele Bachman 42/48/10 (+6)
Herman Cain 41/46/13 (+5)
Tim Pawlenty 41/45/14 (+4)
Sarah Palin 44/48/9 (+4)
Favorable/Unfavorable/Not sure:
Herman Cain 25/27/48 (-2)
Michele Bachman 34/40/26 (-6)
Sarah Palin 41/51/8 (-10)
Tim Pawlenty 22/36/42 (-14)
Mitt Romney 33/48/19 (-15)
PPP surveyed 819 Montana voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for thesurvey is +/-3.4%.To view the crosstabs click HERE.
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Another example of Romney being less favorable and still the one everyone votes for.
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