Public Policy Polling
New Jersey Republican 2012 Primary
Mike Huckabee 18% [10%]
Mitt Romney 18% [28%]
Newt Gingrich 15%
Sarah Palin 14%
Ron Paul 8%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mitch Daniels 3%
John Thune 2%.
Amongst Conservatives
Mike Huckabee 21%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Sarah Palin 16%
Mitt Romney 14%
Ron Paul 5%
Tim Pawlenty 5%
Mitch Daniels 4%
John Thune 2%.
Amongst Moderates
Mitt Romney 24%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Ron Paul 12%
Sarah Palin 11%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Mitch Daniels 2%
John Thune 2%.
Favorability
Mike Huckabee 61%/ 17% +44
Mitt Romney 60%/20% +40
Newt Gingrich 54%/25% +29
Sarah Palin 58%/ 33% +25
January 6-9, 2011 survey of 400 Republican primary voters
[ ] indicates 2008 percentage
Tweets from PPP:
NJ GOP poll bad news for Mitt- should be doing better in Northeast, esp with comparatively moderate electorate
NJ GOP poll good news for Huck- shows appeal for him beyond the South
Romney's conservative problem- 4th place finish with them in NJ wipes out big lead w/moderates
15 comments:
Being from Jersey, I'm surprised how well Palin did in my home state.
jerseyrepublican
Thanks for cheering me how about our candidate, Jersey. Last week was not bad, but this week is rough. Frankly, I am begining to wonder if she will run.
Why do you say that, OJ?
I think she'll run...at the very least to test the waters. But I think that this will be the first time that a first tier candidate will end up being the dark horse.
jerseyrepublican
OJ, you have to remember that Palin's numbers probably won't go up too much until there is evidence of organization beginning in the first few key states and then it won't be much. Palin's numbers will rise after the first debate. The good thing is that she will be asked a lot of questions at the debates because the moderators will want to try to catch her in a printable moment. If she rises to the occasion...so will her poll numbers but probably not much until then.
jerseyrepublican
I do not mind coming in 2nd place in both Iowa and NH, that would keep us in the game and we could conduct a floor fight at the convention if we keep it close enough. However, with Mr. Romney slightly increasing his support in Iowa and Mr. Huckabee slightly increaing his support in NH (as well as NJ) it is starting to become a two person race and I do not like it one bit. A third person can still shake things up, but it might unfortunately be Mr. Pawlenty instead of Mrs. Palin. I am still a Palinite and will promote Palinism whether or not she runs, but I have just order Mr. Pawlenty's book because I fear a back-up plan may eventually be needed to defeat M & M.
OJ, Stop putting so much stock in these polls. They don't mean squat at this point. Also, Huckabee has given every indication that he's unlikely to run. Where do you think the majority of his so-con support will go?
Those two polls did not even have the same rules as to whom they polled. I think one said they polled random caucus goers. New Hampshire said random republican voters...or something to that effect. Too early to worry. I wonder when would be a good strategic time for Palin to enter the race? Any thoughts? I'm thinking mid to late Spring. I think she should attend the Reagan Library debate in May if she's going to run. But maybe not announce until right before that debate.
jerseyrepublican
Not to mention that they both were only one day polls, one with double the amount of sampling size with a near 5% MOE.
jerseyrepublican
I'm gettign extremely bored with all of the polls. I don't even get that excited about the ones showing Palin on top. None of it matters until we know who's running. Furthermore, until the campaign starts, 2012 is not on the radar of the majority of primary voters. I may avoid all discussions of polls until they actually mean something.
I actually dislike polls in general. I think they can create an outcome as much as they can predict one.
jerseyrepublican
I think PPP is deliberately trying to prop up Huckabee. They are heavily biased against both Palin and Romney. There are two possible reasons for this. They either believe that Huck would be the easiest candidate for Obama to beat, or they want him in the race to split the so-con vote with Palin. Just look at the commentary they include with the polls. everything is bad news for Palin...bad news for Romney...Great news for Huck! They rarely provide negative commentary on Huck.
RW,
"They rarely provide negative commentary on Huck."
Could that be either because Huckabee "rarely" polls negatively or that Tom Jensen is among those with a favorable opinion of Huckabee even if he might not agree with him or vote for him?
It is very doubtful that Huck can beat Obama in a general election. Sure he might poll okay against him because he seems the friendliest, and all, but in an actual general election, I doubt a preacher will beat the Harvard Grad with Indies and centrist voters. One week in and an entire slew of Huck's sermons will arise and although I am sure there is nothing bad in them, they still won't help when they're distorted by the media.
jerseyrepublican
jerseyrepublican
Congrats to Mitt & Mike!
zeke
Post a Comment