Where Romney leaves Huckabee and Palin in the dust is with moderates, independents, and the 45+ year olds. You know, the people who ACTUALLY vote!Since I've heard this line repeated on sevaral occasions in recent days, I feel obligated to set the record straight. According to the most recent national GOP primary poll by PPP, Palin out-polled all others in both the "45-65" age group, and the "65+" age group. This phenomenon has played out in a large number of PPP's recent state by state polls as well. In addition, her favorable numbers are the highest among these age groups.
If what Bosman says is true in regards to older voters, Palin appears to be in great shape!Full data is available HERE
Of the 26 states PPP has polled, using their last poll in each state, the stats look like this:
ReplyDeleteAge 65+
Romney 21.73
Gingrich 18.65
Huckabee. 17.81
Palin ....16.31
Age 45-65
Romney .. 19.85
Huckabee..18.54
Palin... 18.38
Gingrich..14.08
If you throw weighed averages in based on delegates per state, you have:Romney, Gingrich, Huckabee, then Palin for 65+.
And, you have: Romney, Huckabee, Palin then Gingrich for the 45-65.
There are a whole lot more people involved in this, than for the one national poll you cite.
HaaHaHa!
ReplyDeleteRWN,
I have to hand it to you, you are funny. I think that it has to do with you dealing with Palin supporters and them being used to buy anything that one of their fellow supporters says.
It doesn't work that way here. As IG rightly points out, you quote ONE NC POLL FROM NOVEMBER 30th. Then make a blanket statement that we all are supposed to buy.
Sorry, NO SALE!
Come on guys, you can disagree without being disagreeable. The guy's job isn't easy, trying to make Sarah Palin seem electable. Cut him some slack, we don't want this to turn into a site where only one candidate's supporters feel comfortable posting.
ReplyDeleteRWN,
ReplyDeleteYou should be arrested for littering!
zeke
Anon: Was I being disagreeable? As far as I know, I just typed data to show a much larger sample of the population.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why all you guys are picking on RWN. Just because there is data from several polls that proves him wrong, is no reason to get snarky.
ReplyDeleteBosman,
ReplyDeleteThat is a national poll, not North Carolina...
PPP surveyed 400 typical national Republican primary voters from November 19th to
21st.
I'm compiling data on the most recent state polls...
ReplyDeleteStay tuned...
I always approve as scientifically accurate any poll that Palin wins. Why not? The elite in both parties don't put much faith in them now either.
ReplyDeleteThe GOP elite know what she did to the corrupt Republicans when she, against all odds, became Governor of Alaska. Plenty of pink slips all around, and even fines. D.C. Republicans have reason to be nervous.
The establishment can hope for Mitt, but they couldn’t control the TPM in 2010, and we’re planning on being stronger working toward 2012. Us commoners will win in the end. This is America don’t forget.
Mitt and Barrack are both vacationing in Hawaii this Christmas. Purely coincidence? They both have the same #1 opponent. I report; you decide.
"Against all odds" she beat a scandal plagued opponent in a state with the population of a mid-sized city.
ReplyDeleteWhen she faced real opposition, she quit.
ReplyDelete"I'm compiling data on the most recent state polls..."
ReplyDeleteI've been posting the recent PPP data pretty constantly...the fact is that she does decent with the primary data, but absolutely terrible when matched up against Obama. She has her 20% of faithful followers, but once they are finished, she just can't add that many more before running out.
Only (4) of the 26 states I posted were before the midterms, so nearly all of them are recent.
ReplyDeleteFrom PPP's state polling over the past two months.
ReplyDeleteWisconsin:
45-65
Palin 22
Romney 18
Huck 15
65+
Palin 23
Romney 20
Huck 18
Ohio:
45-65
Palin 22
Huck 21
Romney 16
65+
Romney 21
Palin 19
Huck 17
Minnesota:
45-65
Pawlenty 27
Palin 18
Huck 14
Gingrich 12
Romney 10
65+
Palin 18
Huck 18
Romney 18
Florida:
45-65
Romney 29
Palin 19
Huck 18
65+
Romney 25
Gingrich 22
Palin 21
Maine:
45-65
Palin 23
Romney 22
Huck 16
65+
Romney 22
Palin 20
Huck 15
Montana:
45-65
Palin 27
Huck 21
Gingrich 15
Romney 11
65+
Gingrich 22
Huck 21
Palin 18
Romney 14
Missouri:
45-65
Huck 25
Palin 21
Gingrich 17
Romney 15
65+
Huck 28
Palin 24
Romney 18
Michigan:
45-65
Romney 24
Palin 21
Huck 15
65+
Romney 25
Huck 22
Gingrich 20
Palin 16
Massachusetts didn't break it down by age.
Of the 8 states polled in the past two months, Palin led the 45-65 category 4 times, Romney twice. In the 65+ category, Romney led four times, Palin twice.
Couple that with the national PPP poll I cited earlier. Illinoisguy's numbers included very old poll numbers. The momentum is clearly on Palin's side. If you're in the Romney camp, the trend is certainly not your friend.
It looks like I forgot VA. Neither Mitt or Palin did well in those categories.
ReplyDeleteYour posting this makes me wonder if you read what I post. I do a lot of work so I hope you do. What I've been showing you is that Palin has been getting dead last in all the recent polls against Obama, except Montana in which she was second from last. Like I said, she has been doing well in the early stages of a primary, but getting absolutely creamed by Obama, while Mitt and Mike have been beating him or nearly so in every state. As I have pointed out, Mitt has beaten her by over 7 percentage points amongst CONSERVATIVES when matched against Obama. He has beaten her by even more than that in the older age groups. Other than her faithful 20%, she has little left after that.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how you're coming up with that many states since the election Iguy. I just went right down the list of postings on PPP's website. Perhaps I missed one or two, but I think I've done enough to support the premise of my post. Palin's support is increasing at the expense of Huck, and some of the tier two candidates are gaining ground at the expense of Romney. Newt seems to be slipping as well. Also, adding more candidates to the mix doesn't seem to have an effect on Palin's numbers. In fact, she's gained ground since the new candidates were added to the mix.
ReplyDeleteIguy, re: your post at :44,
ReplyDeleteThat's not what this post was about. Moreover, we don't care what the Daily Kos poster says the general election numbers are two freakin years out. As I've pointed out many times, Reagan trailed Carter by 25 with 8 months to go. Most of these people being polled know very little about Huck or Mitt. Once they are forced to endure scrutiny on a macro scale the way Palin has, the numbers may change dramatically. It's too soon to tell.
I'd focus on what Mitt needs to do to stop the bleeding, before I'd worry about how Palin is going to beat Obama.
RW, then we don't care what they say about 1st round primary numbers as if all those candidates are in the mix. they won't be by the time we actually start voting. What you have to realize is that somewhere between having about 10- or 12 candidates and a match up against Obama, Sarah loses what she has. It's not hard to follow. She has a very strong 18-20%, but not much beyond that. those that love her love her a lot and they are rock solid. But as we move toward fewer and fewer candidates, that 18-20 becomes a smaller and smaller number compared to what others will have. Were that not true, then she wouldn't be getting creamed badly by Obama in every single state. All I'm saying, and I am being nice, and not snarky, is that she has a lot of work to do to get those to come her way. Mitt, not so much, because he is already showing enough to beat Obama. Are we in agreement on that?
ReplyDelete"Mitt, not so much, because he is already showing enough to beat Obama. Are we in agreement on that?" Right now, Mr. Romney does do a bit better against Mr. Obama in the general election, but that is partly due to the fact that he is more acceptable to Moderates and Liberals. You know, the people who do not vote in primaries. I would argue that Mr. Romney is the one stuck in the low 20s. The arguement that Mr. Romney is going to sky-rocket once we go from 15 to 5 candaites does not make sense for three reasons:
ReplyDelete1. Mr. Romney is not the second or third choice or non Romneyites.
2. His favorability among Conservatives is low. Sure, if Mr. Romney were to win the nomination, they might hold their nose and vote for him against Mr. Obama (haha, even I might vote for Mr. Romney in the general,) but he simply is not going to win the nomination when Conservatives do not favor him.
3. the 3rd and 4th tier candidates only have 2 or 3 % each. Even if Romney get half of those, it is only going to give him so many delegates.
It is becoming clear that perhaps the best way to take out Mrs. Palin is for the two mandate lover, M & M, to join forces. Shhhh, it is already happening. We Palinites are not afraid to take you both on if need be.
OHIO JOE
lol, whatever you say OJ!
ReplyDeleteLaugh all you want IG, but this is one time where your numbers simply do not add up, unless you can find another polling company.
ReplyDeleteOHIO JOE
They aren't my numbers OJ. Talk to PPP about them.
ReplyDeleteThen you did not read the PPP numbers in there entirety.
ReplyDeleteOHIO JOE
Everything I posted was accurate. THey prove as I have said several times already that she is doing fine at the beginning of the primary process, but is doing downright terrible in matchups with Obama. And yes, this is with the exact same group of conservative voters in all of those states.
ReplyDeleteFor the record, I categorically reject the premise that Governor Palin is “unelectable”. At this point in time, that’s simply impossible to know, and those who claim without equivocation that Governor Palin is “unelectable” do not KNOW this to be true as much as they HOPE that it’s true.
ReplyDeleteRW, no, I wish all of our people were electable. And, you are right that this far in advance, we can not KNOW who is or is not electable. But, if Sarah is telling us the truth that part of her decision whether or not to run is whether or not she sees a path to win the general, she has to be going by something, and about all she has right now are the polls that very definitively indicate that most likely can not win. One thing you probably agree with is that something has to change drastically, because very few indicate that they have not made up their mind in a match up between she and Obama. Nearly all have done so, and it looks very bad for her at this point.
ReplyDelete