tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post7054868872737562163..comments2024-03-29T03:23:34.859-04:00Comments on RIGHT SPEAK: In mid-November we have a 3 way race with nobody getting 25% of the vote or a third of the delegatesBOSMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13613253160155525089noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-81566692914651004302011-11-17T04:55:53.118-05:002011-11-17T04:55:53.118-05:00Thanks Hamaca, first, my model is not perfect, I t...Thanks Hamaca, first, my model is not perfect, I take into account, national, state and regional polling. I also try to keep up with state delegate rules which can and does change. I also assign a portion (not all) of the undecided vote because I want to guess as accurately as possible who might reach the various thresholds in each state.<br /><br />I think I have visited the Cain web-site of which you talk. They appear to assign delegates based only on certain state polls. State polls are certainly in my model, but as time goes on, state polls are less and less valuable when more recent national polls show a different story. <br /><br />Often state polls confirm (within the ball park) my calculations base on a variety of factors. So I think I am on the right track, but outlying polls and a changing landscape make things interesting. Again, my model is far from perfect.Ohio JOEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03487408376861656109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-9708611596080604152011-11-17T04:45:12.411-05:002011-11-17T04:45:12.411-05:00Well RW and Martha, perhaps I should have said apo...Well RW and Martha, perhaps I should have said apologize for past antics. Yes, he is running a good campaign now, but pretending to be a pure Conservative now does not answer for past positions and actions.Ohio JOEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03487408376861656109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-34513451820006729082011-11-17T04:17:46.971-05:002011-11-17T04:17:46.971-05:00Mitt Romney is the best in my opinion however what...Mitt Romney is the best in my opinion however what really matters is having a GOP one at the WH. Ron Paul is non - interventist, therefore not suitable for this era of dangers and engagements : world is not a sure place, and certainly not for our fault.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-32084252046976632892011-11-17T00:12:28.810-05:002011-11-17T00:12:28.810-05:00Good stuff, OJ. Thanks for the analysis.
I can...Good stuff, OJ. Thanks for the analysis. <br /><br />I can't help but wonder what your opinion would be on a comment from another site quoting the Cain campaign projections:<br /><br />http://beta.hermancainexpress.com/activism/polling.aspx<br /><br />Campaign Projected Delegates<br />Cain 986<br />Romney 283<br />Gingrich 66<br />Perry 45<br /><br />I'll take your analysis over the Cain campaign's.hamacahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13236317902162863355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-18183392196296350482011-11-16T21:47:10.847-05:002011-11-16T21:47:10.847-05:00I have the same questions as RW. What antics? It i...I have the same questions as RW. What antics? It is Newt's past that is the problem.<br /><br />Newt's rise doesn't appear to be for real to me, OJ. He is going to crash and burn just like the others.<br /><br />Anyway, nice job.<br /><br />-MarthaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-16983403780793873352011-11-16T21:07:41.055-05:002011-11-16T21:07:41.055-05:00I ask because you haven't offered specifics in...I ask because you haven't offered specifics in your criticisms of Newt.Right Wingnuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387554010360328076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-90100746703335587162011-11-16T21:06:13.196-05:002011-11-16T21:06:13.196-05:00He must cease and desist from his antics before I ...<i>He must cease and desist from his antics before I among others back him,</i><br /><br />I too have issues with some things in his past, but that's the case with ALL of them. What is he currently doing that he must "cease and desist" from? What antics do you speak of? That sentence indicates that you're upset with something he's doing NOW.Right Wingnuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387554010360328076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-4500496973389430342011-11-16T21:04:54.363-05:002011-11-16T21:04:54.363-05:00Well OJ, nice try. You have Mitt Romney and everyo...Well OJ, nice try. You have Mitt Romney and everyone else. Almost all have had a turn now. This too will pass. The anti Mormon/Mitt crowd changes like the wind, one day changes to the next. The Gallop poll earlier showed Mitt ahead significantly where it counted more. It shows that 5% of the Republican Party that don't like Mitt Romney are the most vocal, but Mitt is viewed favorably over any other candidate. So Mitt will prevail. Little if any ground game in IA for Newt or Cain and Mitt has one will make the difference. FOX will be off Newt before Jan. Mitt will be left standing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-28041745077193083562011-11-16T20:58:12.384-05:002011-11-16T20:58:12.384-05:00Haha, yes the landscape is a bit of a moving targe...Haha, yes the landscape is a bit of a moving target, but still tight.Ohio JOEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03487408376861656109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3571954475140446599.post-65136783049508660932011-11-16T20:56:11.616-05:002011-11-16T20:56:11.616-05:00Well done OJ.
I knew things were tightening, now ...Well done OJ.<br /><br />I knew things were tightening, now I know how much.BOSMANhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13613253160155525089noreply@blogger.com