This Saturday, the 493 members of the New Hampshire Republican party will gather at the Pinkerton Academy in Derry, New Hampshire for their annual meeting. While there, each one of these party members will be able to anonymously choose the candidate they’d like to see as the party’s nominee for 2012.The following are the results:
More information on the poll can be found HERE.
WOW!
ReplyDeleteTalk about a landslide. And with 21 candidates.
Palin 6.88% OUCH!
Huckabee 2.54% OUCH! OUCH!
zeke
Many lessons to be gleaned here, not least of which if your name is John (regardless of spelling), you need not apply in New Hampshire.
ReplyDeleteThat's not fair.
ReplyDeleteIf Donald Trump hadn't been on the Ballot, Huckafat might have reached, 4%
The fact that Mitt has been the overwhelming favorite in the most important of the first 4 primaries in every poll, straw poll, or survey conducted in the state since the 2008 election is incredibly significant for the process going forward.
ReplyDeleteRomney has comfortably led in Nevada as well. This means his campaign will be viable going into Super Tuesday no matter what happens in Iowa or South Carolina....at which point it will be a 2-candidate race.
There can be only two.
I thoug ht the thinking was with the NH GOP heavy hitters/delegates That Romney wouldn't have done as well. I guess we can put that to rest.
ReplyDeleteAs to Pawlenty,Barbour, Santorum making trips up there to garner support, That sure panned out.
Yes, Mitt can do well in NH, but not in the South.
ReplyDeleteGOP primary voters won't go for a Mormon, because they see Mormonism as a cult.
Huckabee cleans up in the South.
Seeker--we are being assured that people like you do not exist. So, whoever you are, I don't know what kind of game you're trying play, but it's certainly not going to work here.
ReplyDeleteMembers of the NH REPUBLICAN party?
ReplyDeleteSounds establishment to me.
Interviews. Debates. Palin’s strength is when she speaks, ‘off the cuff’. (Note - rarely uses teleprompters.) Although she tends to give good speeches too.
IMO, the members of the establishment will vote for ‘anybody but Palin.’ Most others, when they get past all the elites’ gibberish and learn the truth, will know who has the cojones to fix our country.
Seeker,
ReplyDelete"GOP primary voters won't go for a Mormon, because they see Mormonism as a cult.
Huckabee cleans up in the South."
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When you say "South", is that southern Arkansas?
Is that South Carolina where he's running 4th?
Or is it the states that have squirrel on most restaurant menus?
Congratulations to Romney!
ReplyDeleteAnd of course, to all his supporters!
Actually, I'm surprised that 65% of them voted for someone other than Mitt, considering he's probably wined and dined most of them at his NH cabin.
ReplyDeleteRW,
ReplyDeleteAlmost 25% more than the second place finisher. Oh, wait, that wasn't Palin. That was Ron Paul!
Actually, I doubt if he "wined" any on them . . .
ReplyDeleteVirginia
I guess Romney snubbing the NH Tea Party really hurt him.
ReplyDeleteI don't think so!
Perspective...
ReplyDeleteResults of 2007 NH Straw Poll:
Out of 286 votes cast:
Ron Paul– 208 (73%)
Romney – 26
Huckabee – 20
Tancredo – 8
McCain – 7
Cox – 5
Hunter – 5
Fred Thompson – 3
Giuliani – 3
Brownback – 1
2008 NH Primary results:
John McCain 37
Mitt Romney 31
Mike Huckabee 11
Rudolph W. Giuliani 8
Ron Paul 7
Fred D. Thompson 1
How did Ron Paul win 73% of the vote in the 2007 Straw Poll??
RWN - You should just follow TexCon's lead today. Any attempts to spin this as a negative will just be foolish.
ReplyDeleteDoug, Not trying to spin it as a neg, but this result was completely expected. Nobody is surprised by it. Sure, he's expected to win the NH primary. Because of his huge advantage in the state, a win there will be discounted somewhat...especially if someone can make it close. How in the hell did McCain beat him there last time?
ReplyDelete"Doug, Not trying to spin it as a neg, but this result was completely expected. Nobody is surprised by it. Sure, he's expected to win the NH primary. Because of his huge advantage in the state, a win there will be discounted somewhat...especially if someone can make it close. How in the hell did McCain beat him there last time?"
ReplyDeleteVery simple. Next to NC, and Florida, NH has more veterans per-capita than the other 47 states.
RWN - Not sure when that poll was conducted last time around, or the state of McCain's campaign at the time. I remember he was being left for dead at some point, having run out of money. McCain later surged with the surge in Iraq. Life events sometimes play a significant role in the outcomes of actual voting. So who knows what will ultimately happen a year from now.
ReplyDeleteBut here from Mitt Romney Central, here is some CURRENT perspective:
"Interesting side notes from Nate Gunderson:
One significant point to make about this is that convention delegates are strong conservative voters. Throw in the fact the indies also vote in the primary (and Romney has an even bigger lead amongst them) the actual primary voting margin would be higher. ALSO, the NHGOP selected a Tea Party backed candidate for NHGOP Chair — these same Tea Partying members selected Romney as their candidate of choice. In summary, Romney has widespread appeal amongst indies, mods, and cons alike. That is a recipe for success!"
ALSO, the NHGOP selected a Tea Party backed candidate for NHGOP Chair — these same Tea Partying members selected Romney as their candidate of choice
ReplyDeleteNate is assuming that the same voters who voted for the tea party member as chair also voted for Romney in the straw poll. Since Mitt only got 35% of the vote, we do not no that. I can understand why Nate would want to try to make that case though.
45% of the eligible voters did not cast ballots. I wonder why...
ReplyDeleteMaybe they were hoping for Lydon La Rouche.
ReplyDeleteAlthough the number seem pretty close to the 286 you posted from 2007, so at least that's comparable.
Here's another point of view. I'm not say I agree with everything he says, but it's an interesting take.
ReplyDeleteNew Hampshire GOP Chairman and Straw Poll Results Good News For Palin
As I write this, the news has just reported that a Tea Party Conservative, Jack Kimball, who has previously pledged to support a strong conservative for President has won the Chairmanship upsetting the choice of the GOP Establishment and outgoing Chairman John Sununu,Julia Bergeron by a vote of 222-199. By all accounts, Kimball is a tough, no nonsense conservative who worries many in the Establishment, including Sununu, that he is not "inclusive" enough. That this is catastrophic news for Mitt Romney is an understatement. Kimball has pledged neutrality in the 2012 GOP Presidential primary, but is is a fair bet that had the Establishment choice prevailed, she would be busily reading the same playbook that Delaware GOP Chairman Tom Ross used to torpedo Christine O'Donnell. Having a Tea Party Chairman in New Hampshire was not part of Mitt Romney's plan in what has to be his firewall state.
The other piece of good news for Palin is the straw poll. As it is wont to do, the media and Democrat agitprop outlets like Politico will spin the straw poll as disastrous for Palin and good news for Romney. Don't believe it. In a straw poll of the state central committee, in a state that he calls home, the results of the top eight contenders were as follows:
Romney 35 percent; Paul 11; Pawlenty 8; Palin 7; Bachmann 5; DeMint 5; Cain 4; Huckabee 3
Pawlenty and Paul had signs up and brochures available as did several of the candidates. All of the top seven--except Palin-- and some who finished lower (like Rick Santorum who got three percent) had paid multiple visits to the state or had run there in the past. Palin has not visited the state since 2008 and her last foray into New Hampshire politics was her critical endorsement of now-U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte which helped Ayotte eke out a 1% victory in the GOP primary last summer, earning Palin a major chit. So, without so much as blowing New Hampshire a kiss since 2008, while the others have been working the state for months to years, Palin did better than nearly all of them (except of course Romney the resident). (CONTINUED)
Nate comments go to the point (simlar to what I said on another site), that we can't assume ALL the TP folks don't like Romney, as some manufactured stories the past few days suggest.
ReplyDeleteThe TP is not a monolithic block. The Left wing media image is they are Racist-Yahoo's. The Right wing media spin is the are ant-Establishment Everything. As with most things in life, the truth is most likely someplace inbetween.
RWN - What is the source of your info from the comment at 8:37pm?
ReplyDeleteThe Politico link sees to go to a different story.
Doug, The link at the top of the page will take you to the source. The politico link is just part of the commentary.
ReplyDeleteAre you serious?
ReplyDeleteA Free Republic assessmnet?
Really RWN you do go off the rails at times.
Free Republic indded. In their world you are only free as long as sing from their hymmnal
Doug,
ReplyDeleteBrices Crossroads knows more than you and I combined about this stuff. Why is it that we're expected to take the words of the founder of Mitt Romney Central at face value, but discount the words of BC?
RWN - I don't know who BC is so I can't comment as to the extent of his knowlege, or what he knows and you and I don't.
ReplyDeleteSo let's just look at what both Nate and BC are asserting.
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BC states: "If, as expected, Palin wins Iowa,..." Really? On what grounds is he basing this supposition? Certianly not recent polling. ( I know if they don't show Palin winning, they're suspect..I got it)
BC states the 6 finishers behind Romney tallied a vote of 31%, which is mathematically correct. However, he then goes on assume 100% of those votes will go to Palin, based on the momentum generated by her "as expected win in Iowa." Again on what basis? Is it possible Romney would attract some Pawlenty voters? Couldn't manage peeling off 15-20% of Cain or DeMint voters?
And what of the other 34% - surely as other s drop out, Palin and Romney would share those voters, to varying degrees, no? Wouldn't that pad Romney's lead?
And what of the Independent voters who vote in the primary. Is Palin, "as expected" to winn 100% of their votes?
Now what did Nate assert: "ALSO, the NHGOP selected a Tea Party backed candidate for NHGOP Chair — these same Tea Partying members selected Romney as their candidate of choice."
As I answered previously, perhaps not a 100% backing, but not 0% either.
He then says: "In summary, Romney has widespread appeal amongst indies, mods, and cons alike. That is a recipe for success!"
Based upon all the polling out there, not an unreasonable assumption, at this moment in time.
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I'll stick with Nate, just out reason.
RWN,
ReplyDeleteAsk the average New Hampshire resident what does the Tea Party mean to you, and they'll say, Republican.
They don't look at them as having any more say in who should win in NH than anyone else.
As to the New Republican Chair being a Tea Party member, that means diddly squat.
If he tries to influence the party up here in any way, most voters will do the opposite of what he wants.
Hell, if he wants Palin, He'd be better off pushing Romney or someone else.
NO ONE can influence New Hampshire voters. They vote with their GUT! Right now, their GUT tells them Romney is the best choice.
BTW, NH has been my second home state for the past 30 years.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to Mitt Romney for his win in the NH straw poll. I've seen it said that "of course Romney won there, he's from there." Okay, if those who know him best think he's the right man for the job, that speaks volumes. Of course it is not the only criteria, but it is significant.
ReplyDeleteRomney 2012
Doug,
ReplyDeleteAssuming Nate's opinion is the gold standard, and Brice's are bunk, do you think Mitt will win the New Hampshire Primary by 25 points? Also, if you had to guess, do you think Kimball was Mitt's first choice as party chair?
I have no idea as to what the margin of vitory for anyone will be. That's a like a "what if" question, my answer would be based solely on events or circumstances I have to imagine.
ReplyDeleteI much prefer to accept the reality of things as they stand today and let events unfold.
As to Mitt's preference, I have no idea. I don't know if they know each other, like other, etc.
And what does it matter? Has every past winner been annointed by the Party Chair? I have no idea.
Ask Mr. Brice, maybe he knows.
Congratulations to Mitt Romney!
ReplyDelete